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Effects of Ethanol Plant Proximity and Crop Prices on Land-Use Change in the United States

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  • Yijia Li
  • Ruiqing Miao
  • Madhu Khanna

Abstract

Expansion of ethanol production in the United States has raised concerns regarding its land-use change effects. However, little is known about the extent to which observed land use change in the United States can be attributed to ethanol plant proximity or is caused by changes in crop prices that may be partly induced by expansion in ethanol production. This study aims to examine the determinants of changes in corn acreage and aggregate crop acreage by simultaneously identifying the effects of establishment of ethanol plants serving as terminal markets for corn and the effects of changes in crop prices in the United States between 2003 and 2014. Our results show that corn acreage and total acreage are fairly inelastic with respect to both changes in ethanol capacity in the vicinity, as well as changes in crop prices. Our estimates of acreage elasticity with respect to corn ethanol production are smaller than those obtained by previous studies that disregard the price effect on crop acreage. We find that, ceteris paribus, the increase in ethanol capacity alone led to a modest 3% increase in corn acreage and less than a 1% increase in total crop acreage by 2012 when compared to 2008. The effect of corn price and aggregate crop price on acreage change from 2008 to 2012 was more than twice larger than that of effective ethanol production capacity over this period; but this price effect was largely reversed by the downturn in crop prices after 2012. This study shows that land-use change is not a static phenomenon and that it is important to examine how it evolves in response to various factors that may change over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Yijia Li & Ruiqing Miao & Madhu Khanna, 2019. "Effects of Ethanol Plant Proximity and Crop Prices on Land-Use Change in the United States," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 467-491.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:101:y:2019:i:2:p:467-491.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junpyo Park, 2022. "Distance to Biorefinery Plants and Its Influence on Agricultural Land Value: Evidence from the United States Midwest Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, September.
    2. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Kim, Sojung & Kim, Sumin, 2022. "Hybrid simulation framework for the production management of an ethanol biorefinery," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Yanbing Wang & Michael S. Delgado & Juan Sesmero & Benjamin M. Gramig, 2020. "Market Structure and the Local Effects of Ethanol Expansion on Land Allocation: A Spatially Explicit Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(5), pages 1598-1622, October.
    5. Adjei, Eugene & Zhang, Jingfang & Sawadgo, Wendiam & Li, Wenying, 2022. "The Effect of Payment–for–Ecosystem Services on CRP Land Enrollment: A Nonlinear Regime-Switching Approach," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322344, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Nathan P. Hendricks, 2022. "Would farmers benefit from removing more land from production in the next farm bill?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1139-1157, September.
    7. Krah, Kwabena, 2022. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forestloss: evidence from Ghana," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322247, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Noé J. Nava & William Ridley & Sandy Dall'erba, 2023. "A model of the U.S. food system: What are the determinants of the state vulnerabilities to production shocks and supply chain disruptions?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 95-109, January.
    9. Xu, Yuelu & Elbakidze, Levan, 2021. "Integrated assessment of N runoff in the Gulf of Mexico: an application of spatially explicit partial equilibrium and HAWQS models," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313917, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn Mesfin & Gassmann, Franziska, 2022. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Land Allocation Decisions: Evidence from Maize Farmers in Ethiopia," 96th Annual Conference, April 4-6, 2022, K U Leuven, Belgium 321171, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    11. Ahmed, Musa Hasen & Tesfaye, Wondimagegn & Stephan, Dietrich & Gassmann, Franziska, 2021. "Within Growing Season Weather Variability and Adaptation in Agriculture: Evidence from Cropping Patterns of Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315056, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Junpyo Park & John Anderson & Eric Thompson, 2019. "Land-Use, Crop Choice, and Proximity to Ethanol Plants," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-14, July.
    13. Musa Hasen Ahmed & Wondimagegn Mesfin Tesfaye & Franziska Gassmann, 2023. "Early growing season weather variation, expectation formation and agricultural land allocation decisions in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 255-272, February.
    14. Austin, K.G. & Jones, J.P.H. & Clark, C.M., 2022. "A review of domestic land use change attributable to U.S. biofuel policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Krah, Kwabena, 2023. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forest loss: evidence from Ghana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Ani L. Katchova & Ana Claudia Sant’Anna, 2019. "Impact of Ethanol Plant Location on Corn Revenues for U.S. Farmers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    17. Nava, Noé J. & Morgan, Stephen N. & Ridley, William, 2024. "The Impact of International Demand for Cereals on U.S. farmland prices: A Model Implied Instrumental Variable Approach," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Karwowski, Nicole & Hrozencik, Robert A. & Skidmore, Marin & Rosenberg, Andrew B., 2024. "Water Quality and the Conservation Reserve Program: Empirical Evidence from the Mississippi River Basin," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343739, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Brian Cornish & Ruiqing Miao & Madhu Khanna, 2022. "Impact of changes in Title II of the 2018 Farm Bill on the acreage and environmental benefits of Conservation Reserve Program," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 1100-1122, June.
    20. Xu, Yuelu & Elbakidze, Levan & Yen, Haw & Arnold, Jeffrey G. & Gassman, Philip W. & Hubbart, Jason & Strager, Michael P., 2022. "Integrated assessment of nitrogen runoff to the Gulf of Mexico," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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