IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/uii/journl/v1y2009i1p61-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International price relationship and volatility transmission between stock index and stock index futures

Author

Listed:
  • Ismail bin Ahmad
  • Fahmi bin Abdul Rahim

    (Faculty of Business Management Universiti Teknologi MARA Malaysia
    Faculty of Business Management Universiti Teknologi MARA Malaysia)

Abstract

This study investigates the international price relationship and volatility transmissions between stock index and stock index futures of Malaysia, Hong Kong and Japan. Vector Autoregression (VAR) GJR-GARCH model was applied to the nine years daily price. Japanese markets are the main information producer to the market price changes. International market interdependence only affected the domestic volatility transmission of spot and futures market in Hong Kong. Asymmetric effects exist in all markets and the volatility persistence in each market is high. Finally, the overall conditional correlation estimates for spot and futures markets are higher in the unrestricted model form compared to the restricted model form.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismail bin Ahmad & Fahmi bin Abdul Rahim, 2009. "International price relationship and volatility transmission between stock index and stock index futures," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 61-75, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:uii:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:61-75
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journal.uii.ac.id/JEP/article/download/2285/2084
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journal.uii.ac.id/JEP/article/view/2285/2084
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    2. Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    4. Alex Frino & Terry Walter & Andrew West, 2000. "The lead–lag relationship between equities and stock index futures markets around information releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 467-487, May.
    5. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 2001. "The lead-lag relationship between the FTSE100 stock index and its derivative contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 385-393.
    6. Robert W. Faff, 2002. "The Impact of Stock Index Futures Trading on Daily Returns Seasonality: A Multicountry Study," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(1), pages 95-126, January.
    7. Shang-Wu Yu, 2001. "Index futures trading and spot price volatility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 183-186.
    8. Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
    9. Antonios Antoniou & Gioia Pescetto & Antonis Violaris, 2003. "Modelling International Price Relationships and Interdependencies Between the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets of Three EU Countries: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5-6), pages 645-667.
    10. Jae H. Min & Mohammad Najand, 1999. "A further investigation of the lead–lag relationship between the spot market and stock index futures: Early evidence from Korea," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 217-232, April.
    11. Darren Butterworth, 2000. "The impact of futures trading on underlying stock index volatility: the case of the FTSE Mid 250 contract," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(7), pages 439-442.
    12. Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2000. "Stock index futures trading and volatility in international equity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 661-685, August.
    13. Antonios Antoniou & Gioia Pescetto & Antonis Violaris, 2003. "Modelling International Price Relationships and Interdependencies Between the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets of Three EU Countries: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 645-667, June.
    14. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2001. "Return and Volatility Dynamics in the Spot and Futures Markets in Australia: An Intervention Analysis in a Bivariate EGARCH‐X Framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(9), pages 833-850, September.
    15. Jian Yang & David A. Bessler, 2004. "The International Price Transmission in Stock Index Futures Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 370-386, July.
    16. Galloway, Tina M & Miller, James M, 1997. "Index Futures Trading and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from the Introduction of MidCap 400 Index Futures," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 845-865, November.
    17. Pierluigi Bologna & Laura Cavallo, 2002. "Does the introduction of stock index futures effectively reduce stock market volatility? Is the 'futures effect' immediate? Evidence from the Italian stock exchange using GARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 183-192.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hasan F. Baklaci & Ömür Süer & Tezer Yelkenci̇, 2018. "Price Linkages Among Emerging Gold Futures Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1345-1365, December.
    2. Jasman Tuyon & Zamri Ahmad, 2018. "Behavioural Asset Pricing Determinants in a Factor and Style Investing Framework," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 32-52.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ashish Kumar, 2015. "Impact of Currency Futures on Volatility in Exchange Rate," Paradigm, , vol. 19(1), pages 95-108, June.
    2. Bohl, Martin T. & Diesteldorf, Jeanne & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 207-224.
    3. George Filis & Christos Floros & Bruno Eeckels, 2011. "Option listing, returns and volatility: evidence from Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1423-1435.
    4. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    5. Kumar, Satish, 2018. "Price discovery in emerging currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 528-536.
    6. Loc Dong Truong & Anh Thi Kim Nguyen & Dut Van Vo, 2021. "Index Future Trading and Spot Market Volatility in Frontier Markets: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 353-366, September.
    7. Mustafa Okur & Emrah Cevik, 2013. "Testing Intraday Volatility Spillovers in Turkish Capital Markets: Evidence from Ise," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 99-116, January.
    8. Tao, Juan & Green, Christopher J., 2012. "Asymmetries, causality and correlation between FTSE100 spot and futures: A DCC-TGARCH-M analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-37.
    9. Kuttu, Saint, 2014. "Return and volatility dynamics among four African equity markets: A multivariate VAR-EGARCH analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 56-69.
    10. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Evangelos Drimbetas, 2008. "Impact of international volatility and the introduction of Individual Stock Futures on the volatility of a small market," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 119-119.
    11. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    12. Greppmair, Stefan & Theissen, Erik, 2019. "Small is beautiful? How the introduction of mini futures contracts affects the regular contract," CFR Working Papers 19-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Karaa, Rabaa & Slim, Skander & Hmaied, Dorra Mezzez, 2018. "Trading intensity and the volume-volatility relationship on the Tunis Stock Exchange," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 88-99.
    14. Alex Frino & Michael Garcia, 2018. "Price discovery in short‐term interest rate markets: Futures versus swaps," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1179-1188, October.
    15. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Information transmission across stock indices and stock index futures: International evidence using wavelet framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 411-421.
    16. Yiuman Tse & Paramita Bandyopadhyay & Yang‐Pin Shen, 2006. "Intraday Price Discovery in the DJIA Index Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1572-1585, November.
    17. Corbet, Shaen & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Meegan, Andrew, 2018. "Long-term stock market volatility and the influence of terrorist attacks in Europe," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 118-131.
    18. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "A broadened causality in variance approach to assess the risk dynamics between crude oil prices and the Jordanian stock market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 271-279.
    19. Guntur Anjana Raju & Sanjeeta Shirodkar, 2020. "The Lead Lag Relationship between Spot and Futures Markets in the Energy Sector: Empirical Evidence from Indian Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 409-414.
    20. Sol Kim & Geul Lee, 2017. "Lead–Lag Relationship Between Returns and Implied Moments: Evidence from KOSPI 200 Intraday Options Data," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-20, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spot-futures; lead-lags; volatility; VAR GJR-GARCH; Asian financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uii:journl:v:1:y:2009:i:1:p:61-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Yuliani (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journal.uii.ac.id/JEP/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.