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Modelling International Price Relationships and Interdependencies Between the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets of Three EU Countries: A Multivariate Analysis

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  • Antonios Antoniou
  • Gioia Pescetto
  • Antonis Violaris

Abstract

This paper addresses the important relationship between stock index and stock index futures markets in an international context. By simply examining the spot‐futures relationship within a single country as most of the extant literature does and thus ignoring possible market interdependencies between countries, the dynamics of price adjustments may be misspecified and thus findings misleading. The main contribution of the paper is to improve our understanding of the pricing relationship between spot and futures markets in the light of international market interdependencies. Using a multivariate VAR‐EGARCH methodology, the paper investigates stock index and stock index futures market interdependence, that is lead‐lag relationships and volatility interactions between the stock and futures markets of three main European countries, namely France, Germany and the UK. In addition, the paper explicitly accounts for potential asymmetries that may exist in the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets. The main conclusions of the paper imply that investors need to account for market interactions across countries to fully and correctly exploit the potential for hedging and diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonios Antoniou & Gioia Pescetto & Antonis Violaris, 2003. "Modelling International Price Relationships and Interdependencies Between the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets of Three EU Countries: A Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 645-667, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:30:y:2003:i:5-6:p:645-667
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.05409
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    2. C S Savva & D R Osborn & L Gill, 2005. "Spillovers and Correlations between US and Major European Stock Markets: The Role of the Euro," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 64, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. Trang Nha Le & Makoto Kakinaka, 2010. "International Transmission Of Stock Returns: Mean And Volatility Spillover Effects In Indonesia And Malaysia," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 4(1), pages 115-131.
    4. Yiuman Tse & Paramita Bandyopadhyay & Yang‐Pin Shen, 2006. "Intraday Price Discovery in the DJIA Index Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1572-1585, November.
    5. Fowowe, Babajide & Shuaibu, Mohammed, 2016. "Dynamic spillovers between Nigerian, South African and international equity markets," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 59-80.
    6. Ekin Tokat & Hakkı Arda Tokat, 2010. "Shock and Volatility Transmission in the Futures and Spot Markets: Evidence from Turkish Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 92-104, January.
    7. Christos Savva & Denise R Osborn & Len Gill, 2005. "Volatility, spillover Effects and Correlations in US and Major European Markets," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 23, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Ismail bin Ahmad & Fahmi bin Abdul Rahim, 2009. "International price relationship and volatility transmission between stock index and stock index futures," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 61-75, April.
    9. Zaghum Umar & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "Asymmetric Return and Volatility Transmission in Conventional and Islamic Equities," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Erdogan, Oral & Tata, Kenan & Karahasan, B. Can & Sengoz, M. Hakan, 2013. "Dynamics of the co-movement between stock and maritime markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 282-290.
    11. Hou, Yang & Li, Steven, 2016. "Information transmission between U.S. and China index futures markets: An asymmetric DCC GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 884-897.
    12. Jack J. W. Yang & Chia-Hsing Huang & Chi-Hui Wang, 2013. "Nonlinear Relationships between Taiwan VIX Index and the Intraday Ordering Behavior of Stock Index Options," Business and Management Research, Business and Management Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(3), pages 68-80, September.
    13. Junior, Peterson Owusu & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Padhan, Hemachandra & Alagidede, Imhotep, 2020. "Analysis of EEMD-based quantile-in-quantile approach on spot- futures prices of energy and precious metals in India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Kotkatvuori-Örnberg, Juha & Nikkinen, Jussi & Äijö, Janne, 2013. "Stock market correlations during the financial crisis of 2008–2009: Evidence from 50 equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 70-78.
    15. Audi, Marc & Sadiq, Azhar & Ali, Amjad, 2021. "Performance Evaluation of Islamic and Non-Islamic Equity and Bonds Indices: Evidence from selected Emerging and Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 109866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Idier, J., 2006. "Stock exchanges industry consolidation and shock transmission," Working papers 159, Banque de France.
    17. Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2011. "Determinants of European stock market integration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 574-585.
    18. W.I.C.S. Gunasinghe, 2005. "Behaviour of Stock Markets in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 6(2), pages 165-191, September.
    19. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2016. "Intra- and inter-regional return and volatility spillovers across emerging and developed markets: Evidence from stock indices and stock index futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 96-114.
    20. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma & Lau, Marco Chi Keung & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Information transmission across stock indices and stock index futures: International evidence using wavelet framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 411-421.
    21. Andreas Röthig, 2011. "On speculators and hedgers in currency futures markets: who leads whom?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 63-69, January.
    22. Harya Widiputra & Russel Pears & Antoaneta Serguieva & Nikola Kasabov, 2009. "Dynamic interaction networks in modelling and predicting the behaviour of multiple interactive stock markets," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1‐2), pages 189-205, January.
    23. Abdou, Hussein A. & Elamer, Ahmed A. & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Ibrahim, Bassam A., 2024. "The impact of oil and global markets on Saudi stock market predictability: A machine learning approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    24. Kuttu, Saint, 2014. "Return and volatility dynamics among four African equity markets: A multivariate VAR-EGARCH analysis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 56-69.

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