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The lead-lag relationship between the FTSE100 stock index and its derivative contracts

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  • Owain Ap Gwilym
  • Mike Buckle

Abstract

This paper examines the lead/lag relationships between the FTSE100 stock market index and its related futures and options contracts, and also the interrelation between the derivatives markets. Both the index futures and index options contracts are found to lead the cash index as predicted. However, the call option market appears to marginally lead both the index futures and the put option market. In the only previous paper to examine the inter-market relationships between a stock index and related futures and options contracts, Fleming et al (Journal of Futures Markets, 16, 353-387, 1996) maintain that relative trading costs determine which market leads. As the trading costs of calls and puts are similar, other factors must be driving the relationships observed in this paper. We hypothesize that informed traders with bullish expectations wishing to gain leverage from the options market will buy calls or, with greater risk, sell puts. As market sentiment was bullish for most of the sample period examined, this could explain the call market leads reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 2001. "The lead-lag relationship between the FTSE100 stock index and its derivative contracts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 385-393.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:4:p:385-393
    DOI: 10.1080/096031001300313947
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sol Kim & Geul Lee, 2017. "Lead–Lag Relationship Between Returns and Implied Moments: Evidence from KOSPI 200 Intraday Options Data," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Mohamad, Azhar & Mohamed Shariff, Mohammad Syazwan Bin, 2019. "Lead-Lag relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum: Evidence from hourly and daily data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 306-321.
    3. Nam, Seung Oh & Oh, SeungYoung & Kim, Hyun Kyung & Kim, Byung Chun, 2006. "An empirical analysis of the price discovery and the pricing bias in the KOSPI 200 stock index derivatives markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 398-414.
    4. Kumar, Satish, 2018. "Price discovery in emerging currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 528-536.
    5. Angeliki Skoura, 2019. "Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships Using Both Time Domain and Time-Frequency Domain; An Application to Wealth-To-Income Ratio," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-27, April.
    6. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Chun-Nan Chen, 2010. "Examining the interrelation dynamics between option and stock markets using the Markov-switching vector error correction model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 1173-1191.
    7. Canto, Bea & Kräussl, Roman, 2006. "Stock market interactions and the impact of macroeconomic news: Evidence from high frequency data of European futures markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/25, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    8. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    9. Jiang, Tao & Bao, Si & Li, Long, 2019. "The linear and nonlinear lead–lag relationship among three SSE 50 Index markets: The index futures, 50ETF spot and options markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 878-893.
    10. Lee, Ming-Chih & Chiu, Chien-Liang & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2007. "Is twin behavior of Nikkei 225 index futures the same?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 199-210.
    11. Yao, Can-Zhong & Lin, Qing-Wen, 2017. "The mutual causality analysis between the stock and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 478(C), pages 188-204.
    12. Kai-Li Wang & Mei-Ling Chen, 2007. "The dynamics in the spot, futures, and call options with basis asymmetries: an intraday analysis in a generalized multivariate GARCH-M MSKST framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 371-394, November.
    13. Ismail bin Ahmad & Fahmi bin Abdul Rahim, 2009. "International price relationship and volatility transmission between stock index and stock index futures," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 61-75, April.
    14. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2013. "Intraday volatility spillovers between spot and futures indices: Evidence from the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1795-1802.

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