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The lead–lag relationship between equities and stock index futures markets around information releases

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  • Alex Frino
  • Terry Walter
  • Andrew West

Abstract

This paper documents a strengthening in the lead of stock index futures returns over stock index returns around macroeconomic information releases. Some evidence of a strengthening in feedback from the equities market to the futures market and weakening in the lead of the futures market around major stock‐specific information releases is also provided. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors with better marketwide information prefer to trade in stock index futures while investors with stock‐specific information prefer to trade in underlying stocks. A small weakening in the contemporaneous relationship between stock index futures returns and stock index returns around both types of releases is also documented. This is consistent with disintegration in the relationship between the two markets associated with noise induced volatility. One by‐product of this study is new comparative evidence on the performance of adjustments for infrequent trading of index stocks based on a commonly used ARMA technique versus recalculation of the stock index using quote midpoints. The results suggest that the quote midpoint index performs at least as well as the ARMA adjusted index across the entire sample period, as well as around the different types of information releases. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:467–487, 2000

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Frino & Terry Walter & Andrew West, 2000. "The lead–lag relationship between equities and stock index futures markets around information releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 467-487, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:20:y:2000:i:5:p:467-487
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    Cited by:

    1. Guntur Anjana Raju & Sanjeeta Shirodkar, 2020. "The Lead Lag Relationship between Spot and Futures Markets in the Energy Sector: Empirical Evidence from Indian Markets," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 409-414.
    2. Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad & Mohamad, Azhar & Mohamed Shariff, Mohammad Syazwan Bin, 2019. "Lead-Lag relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum: Evidence from hourly and daily data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 306-321.
    3. Kumar, Satish, 2018. "Price discovery in emerging currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 528-536.
    4. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2006. "Calculating the optimal hedge ratio: constant, time varying and the Kalman Filter approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 293-299.
    5. Alex Frino & Michael Garcia, 2018. "Price discovery in short‐term interest rate markets: Futures versus swaps," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(10), pages 1179-1188, October.
    6. Alemany, Nuria & Aragó, Vicent & Salvador, Enrique, 2020. "Lead-lag relationship between spot and futures stock indexes: Intraday data and regime-switching models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 269-280.
    7. Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2001. "Market Architecture and Nonlinear Dynamics of Australian Stock and Futures Indices," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 541-566, December.
    8. José Da Fonseca & Riadh Zaatour, 2017. "Correlation and Lead–Lag Relationships in a Hawkes Microstructure Model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 260-285, March.
    9. Chun-I Lin & Kuan-Yi Chiang & Ming-Chih Lee & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2021. "The Cross-Border Price Discovery and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 1-2.
    10. Jonathan Dark, 2004. "Bivariate error correction FIGARCH and FIAPARCH models on the Australian All Ordinaries Index and its SPI futures," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Lin, Chu-Bin & Chou, Robin K. & Wang, George H.K., 2018. "Investor sentiment and price discovery: Evidence from the pricing dynamics between the futures and spot markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-31.
    12. Alex Frino & Michael Garcia & Zeyang Zhou, 2020. "Impact of algorithmic trading on speed of adjustment to new information: Evidence from interest rate derivatives," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 749-760, May.
    13. Ismail bin Ahmad & Fahmi bin Abdul Rahim, 2009. "International price relationship and volatility transmission between stock index and stock index futures," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 1(1), pages 61-75, April.
    14. Ren, Fei & Ji, Shen-Dan & Cai, Mei-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Jiang, Xiong-Fei, 2019. "Dynamic lead–lag relationship between stock indices and their derivatives: A comparative study between Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 709-723.

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