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Hysteresis and the Welfare Effect of Corrective Policies: Theory and Evidence from an Energy-Saving Program

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  • Francisco Costa
  • François Gerard

Abstract

This paper provides stark evidence of hysteresis—the failure of an effect to reverse itself as its underlying cause is reversed—in energy demand. We estimate that half of the 23% reduction in residential electricity use caused by a 9-month-long policy that was imposed on millions of Brazilians has persisted for at least 12 years. We examine the implications of our finding by extending the traditional welfare analysis of corrective policies to allow for hysteresis. Our estimate highlights that failing to take hysteresis into account could severely bias the welfare evaluation of policies aimed at reducing (long-run) energy demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Costa & François Gerard, 2021. "Hysteresis and the Welfare Effect of Corrective Policies: Theory and Evidence from an Energy-Saving Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(6), pages 1705-1743.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/713729
    DOI: 10.1086/713729
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    5. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Do Consumers Distinguish Fixed Cost from Variable Cost? “Schmeduling" in Two-Part Tariffs in Energy," NBER Working Papers 26853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Browne, Oliver R. & Gazze, Ludovica & Greenstone, Michael & Olga Rostapshova, 2022. "Man vs. Machine : Technological Promise and Political Limits of Automated Regulation Enforcement," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1440, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Spuler, Fiona & Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "The economics of climate change with endogenous preferences," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Javier D. Donna, 2021. "Measuring long‐run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 945-994, December.
    10. ITO Koichiro & ZHANG Shuang, 2020. "Reforming Inefficient Energy Pricing: Evidence from China," Discussion papers 20062, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Fetter, T. Robert, 2022. "Energy transitions and technology change: “Leapfrogging” reconsidered," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    12. Cristian Huse & Claudio Lucinda, Andre Ribeiro, 2019. "The Impact of Incentives on the Energy Paradox: Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_39, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP), revised 16 Oct 2019.
    13. Mathieu Lefebvre & Anne Stenger, 2016. "Long-lasting effects of temporary incentives in public good games," Working Papers of BETA 2016-25, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    14. Cardella, Eric & Ewing, Brad & Williams, Ryan Blake, 2018. "Green is Good – The Impact of Information Nudges on the Adoption of Voluntary Green Power Plans," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266583, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    15. Huse, Cristian & Lucinda, Claudio & Ribeiro, Andre, 2021. "Assessing the effects of a large temporary energy savings program: Evidence from a developing country," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Do,Quy-Toan & Jacoby,Hanan G., 2020. "Sophisticated Policy with Naive Agents : Habit Formation and Piped Water in Vietnam," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9207, The World Bank.
    17. Chi L. Ta, 2021. "Theoretical and Empirical Evaluation of a Competitive Energy Rebate Program," CESifo Working Paper Series 8948, CESifo.
    18. Costa, Francisco J M & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2024. "The Environmental Costs of Political Interference: Evidence from Power Plants in the Amazon," SocArXiv 6y7vk, Center for Open Science.
    19. Costa, Francisco J M & Szerman, Dimitri & Assunção, Juliano, 2018. "Local Economic Impacts of Hydroelectric Power Plants: Evidence from Brazil," SocArXiv kzhs6, Center for Open Science.
    20. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Pardo & Amar Shanghavi, 2018. "More than an urban legend: the short- and long-run effects of unplanned fertility shocks," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 1125-1176, October.
    21. Ta, Chi L., 2020. "Does Competition for Energy Conservation Rebates Work?," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304245, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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