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The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctiations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series

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Listed:
  • van Dijk, D.J.C.
  • Strikholm, B.
  • Terasvirta, T.

Abstract

Changes in the seasonal patterns of macroeconomic time series may be due to the effects of business cycle fluctuations or to technological and institutional change or both. We examine the relative importance of these two sources of change in seasonality for industrial production series of the G7 countries. We find compelling evidence that the effects of gradual institutional and technological change are much more important than the effects attributable to the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • van Dijk, D.J.C. & Strikholm, B. & Terasvirta, T., 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctiations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-12, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:1676
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear time series; Seasonality; Smooth transition autoregression; structural change; time-varying parameter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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