IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/restat/v106y2024i4p938-955.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Barron

    (WZB Berlin)

  • Charles D. H. Parry

    (South African Medical Research Council and Stellenbosch University)

  • Debbie Bradshaw

    (South African Medical Research Council and University of Cape Town)

  • Rob Dorrington

    (University of Cape Town)

  • Pam Groenewald

    (South African Medical Research Council)

  • Ria Laubscher

    (South African Medical Research Council)

  • Richard Matzopoulos

    (South African Medical Research Council and University of Cape Town)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of a sudden and unexpected nationwide alcohol sales ban in South Africa. We find that this policy causally reduced injury-induced mortality in the country by at least 14%. We argue that this estimate constitutes a lower bound on the true impact of alcohol on injury-induced mortality. We also document a sharp drop in violent crimes, indicating a tight link between alcohol and aggressive behavior in society. Our results underscore the severe harm that alcohol can cause and point toward a role for policy measures that target the heaviest drinkers in society.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Barron & Charles D. H. Parry & Debbie Bradshaw & Rob Dorrington & Pam Groenewald & Ria Laubscher & Richard Matzopoulos, 2024. "Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 938-955, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:4:p:938-955
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01228
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01228
    Download Restriction: Access to PDF is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1162/rest_a_01228?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Caliendo & Katharina Wrohlich, 2010. "Evaluating the German 'Mini-Job' reform using a natural experiment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2475-2489.
    2. Anna Bindler & Randi Hjalmarsson & Nadine Ketel & Andreea Mitrut, 2024. "Discontinuities in the Age-Victimisation Profile and the Determinants of Victimisation," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 95-134.
    3. Leslie, Emily & Wilson, Riley, 2020. "Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Christopher S. Carpenter, 2005. "Heavy Alcohol Use and the Commission of Nuisance Crime: Evidence from Underage Drunk Driving Laws," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 267-272, May.
    5. Marcus, Jan & Siedler, Thomas, 2015. "Reducing binge drinking? The effect of a ban on late-night off-premise alcohol sales on alcohol-related hospital stays in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0, pages 55-77.
    6. Kai Barron & Charles D. H. Parry & Debbie Bradshaw & Rob Dorrington & Pam Groenewald & Ria Laubscher & Richard Matzopoulos, 2024. "Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 938-955, July.
    7. Schmidheiny, Kurt & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2019. "On Event Study Designs and Distributed-Lag Models: Equivalence, Generalization and Practical Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 12079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Haven Emerson, 1932. "Prohibition and Mortality and Morbidity," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 163(1), pages 53-60, September.
    9. Miron, Jeffrey A & Zwiebel, Jeffrey, 1991. "Alcohol Consumption during Prohibition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 242-247, May.
    10. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    11. Jay Bhattacharya & Christina Gathmann & Grant Miller, 2013. "The Gorbachev Anti-alcohol Campaign and Russia's Mortality Crisis," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 232-260, April.
    12. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    13. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    14. Green, Colin P. & Heywood, John. S. & Navarro, Maria, 2014. "Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 189-198.
    15. Marc T. Law & Mindy S. Marks, 2020. "Did Early Twentieth‐Century Alcohol Prohibition Affect Mortality?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 680-697, April.
    16. Ivandić, Ria & Kirchmaier, Tom & Saeidi, Yasaman & Torres Blas, Neus, 2024. "Football, alcohol, and domestic abuse," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    17. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Risky Behavior among Youths: Some Issues from Behavioral Economics," NBER Chapters, in: Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis, pages 29-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Amy E. Nivette & Renee Zahnow & Raul Aguilar & Andri Ahven & Shai Amram & Barak Ariel & María José Arosemena Burbano & Roberta Astolfi & Dirk Baier & Hyung-Min Bark & Joris E. H. Beijers & Marcelo Ber, 2021. "A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 868-877, July.
    19. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    20. Ciro Biderman & JoãoMP DeMello & Alexandre Schneider, 2010. "Dry Laws and Homicides: Evidence from the São Paulo Metropolitan Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 157-182, March.
    21. Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 147-190, April.
    22. Uta Schönberg & Johannes Ludsteck, 2014. "Expansions in Maternity Leave Coverage and Mothers' Labor Market Outcomes after Childbirth," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 469-505.
    23. Miron, Jeffrey A, 1999. "Violence and the U.S. Prohibitions of Drug and Alcohol," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 1(1-2), pages 78-114, Fall.
    24. Angela K. Dills, 2004. "Alcohol Prohibition and Cirrhosis," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 6(2), pages 285-318.
    25. Thiemo Fetzer & Lukas Hensel & Johannes Hermle & Christopher Roth, 2021. "Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 968–978-9, December.
    26. Darius Lakdawalla & Neeraj Sood & Dana Goldman, 2006. "HIV Breakthroughs and Risky Sexual Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 1063-1102.
    27. Ariel Rubinstein, 2003. ""Economics and Psychology"? The Case of Hyperbolic Discounting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1207-1216, November.
    28. Christopher Carpenter, 2007. "Heavy Alcohol Use and Crime: Evidence from Underage Drunk-Driving Laws," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(3), pages 539-557.
    29. Oster, Emily, 2018. "Does disease cause vaccination? Disease outbreaks and vaccination response," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 90-101.
    30. Christopher Carpenter, 2004. "Heavy alcohol use and youth suicide: Evidence from tougher drunk driving laws," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 831-842.
    31. Frank Schilbach, 2019. "Alcohol and Self-Control: A Field Experiment in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1290-1322, April.
    32. Bennett, Daniel & Chiang, Chun-Fang & Malani, Anup, 2015. "Learning during a crisis: The SARS epidemic in Taiwan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-18.
    33. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    34. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.
    35. Emily Greene Owens, 2011. "Are Underground Markets Really More Violent? Evidence from Early 20th Century America," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-44.
    36. Kai Barron & Luis F. Gamboa & Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes, 2019. "Behavioural Response to a Sudden Health Risk: Dengue and Educational Outcomes in Colombia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 620-644, April.
    37. Marcos Y. Nakaguma & Brandon J. Restrepo, 2018. "Restricting access to alcohol and public health: Evidence from electoral dry laws in Brazil," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 141-156, January.
    38. Avner Ahituv & V. Joseph Hotz & Tomas Philipson, 1996. "The Responsiveness of the Demand for Condoms to the Local Prevalence of AIDS," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(4), pages 869-897.
    39. Suranovic, Steven M. & Goldfarb, Robert S. & Leonard, Thomas C., 1999. "An economic theory of cigarette addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, January.
    40. Gamboa, Luis Fernando & Rodriguez Lesmes, Paul, 2019. "The fertility-inhibiting effect of mosquitoes: Socio-economic differences in response to the Zika crisis in Colombia," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 63-72.
    41. Baughman, Reagan & Conlin, Michael & Dickert-Conlin, Stacy & Pepper, John, 2001. "Slippery when wet: the effects of local alcohol access laws on highway safety," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1089-1096, November.
    42. Blocker Jr., J.S., 2006. "Did prohibition really work? Alcohol prohibition as a public health innovation," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 96(2), pages 233-243.
    43. David Roodman & James G. MacKinnon & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Matthew D. Webb, 2019. "Fast and wild: Bootstrap inference in Stata using boottest," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(1), pages 4-60, March.
    44. Orphanides, Athanasios & Zervos, David, 1995. "Rational Addiction with Learning and Regret," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 739-758, August.
    45. Lindsey Rose Bullinger & Jillian B. Carr & Analisa Packham, 2021. "COVID-19 and Crime," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 249-280.
    46. Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin, 2017. "The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Morbidity in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 95-104, March.
    47. Cawley, John & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2011. "The Economics of Risky Health Behaviors," Handbook of Health Economics, in: Mark V. Pauly & Thomas G. Mcguire & Pedro P. Barros (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 95-199, Elsevier.
    48. Ainslie, George, 1991. "Derivation of "Rational" Economic Behavior from Hyperbolic Discount Curves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 334-340, May.
    49. Carpenter, Christopher, 2005. "Youth alcohol use and risky sexual behavior: evidence from underage drunk driving laws," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 613-628, May.
    50. Asik, Gunes A. & Nas Ozen, Efsan, 2021. "It takes a curfew: The effect of Covid-19 on female homicides," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    51. Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin, 2009. "The Effect of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Drinking Age," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 164-182, January.
    52. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    53. Jillian B. Carr & Jennifer L. Doleac, 2018. "Keep the Kids Inside? Juvenile Curfews and Urban Gun Violence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 609-618, October.
    54. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    55. Abrams, David S., 2021. "COVID and crime: An early empirical look," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    56. Johan P Mackenbach & Ivana Kulhánová & Matthias Bopp & Carme Borrell & Patrick Deboosere & Katalin Kovács & Caspar W N Looman & Mall Leinsalu & Pia Mäkelä & Pekka Martikainen & Gwenn Menvielle & Maica, 2015. "Inequalities in Alcohol-Related Mortality in 17 European Countries: A Retrospective Analysis of Mortality Registers," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-31, December.
    57. Jérôme Adda, 2007. "Behavior towards health risks: An empirical study using the “Mad Cow” crisis as an experiment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 285-305, December.
    58. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    59. Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin, 2011. "The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Public Health," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 133-156, Spring.
    60. Livingston, Brendan, 2016. "Murder and the black market: Prohibition's impact on homicide rates in American cities," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 33-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kai Barron & Charles D. H. Parry & Debbie Bradshaw & Rob Dorrington & Pam Groenewald & Ria Laubscher & Richard Matzopoulos, 2024. "Alcohol, Violence, and Injury-Induced Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 938-955, July.
    2. Ivandić, Ria & Kirchmaier, Tom & Saeidi, Yasaman & Torres Blas, Neus, 2024. "Football, alcohol, and domestic abuse," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Andrés Ramasco, 2023. "Not a Sip: Effects of Zero Tolerance Laws on Road Traffic Fatalities," Working Papers 289, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Matthias Bäuml & Jan Marcus & Thomas Siedler, 2023. "Health effects of a ban on late‐night alcohol sales," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 65-89, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barron, Kai & Bradshaw, Debbie & Parry, Charles D. H. & Dorrington, Rob & Groenewald, Pam & Laubscher, Ria & Matzopoulos, Richard, 2021. "Alcohol and Short-Run Mortality: Evidence from a Modern-Day Prohibition," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 273, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    2. Matthias Bäuml & Jan Marcus & Thomas Siedler, 2023. "Health effects of a ban on late‐night alcohol sales," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 65-89, January.
    3. Teltser, Keith & Lennon, Conor & Burgdorf, Jacob, 2021. "Do ridesharing services increase alcohol consumption?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Avdic, Daniel & von Hinke, Stephanie, 2021. "Extending alcohol retailers’ opening hours: Evidence from Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Nicolai Brachowicz & Judit Vall Castello, 2019. "Is changing the minimum legal drinking age an effective policy tool?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(12), pages 1483-1490, December.
    6. Lindo, Jason M. & Swensen, Isaac D. & Waddell, Glen R., 2013. "Alcohol and student performance: Estimating the effect of legal access," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 22-32.
    7. Marco Francesconi & Jonathan James, 2022. "Alcohol Price Floors and Externalities: The Case of Fatal Road Crashes," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 1118-1156, September.
    8. Cuffe, Harold E. & Gibbs, Christopher G., 2017. "The effect of payday lending restrictions on liquor sales," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 132-145.
    9. Marcos Y. Nakaguma & Brandon J. Restrepo, 2018. "Restricting access to alcohol and public health: Evidence from electoral dry laws in Brazil," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 141-156, January.
    10. Backhaus, Andreas, 2022. "International travel in times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of German school breaks," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    11. Marcos Yamada Nakaguma & Brandon Restrepo, 2014. "Unintended Benefits of Election Day Alcohol Bans: Evidence from Road Crashes and Hospitalizations in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_21, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    12. repec:oup:apecpp:v:40:y:2018:i:3:p:461-481. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Howard, Greg & Ornaghi, Arianna, 2021. "Closing Time: The Local Equilibrium Effects of Prohibition," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 792-830, September.
    14. D. Mark Anderson & Benjamin Crost & Daniel I. Rees, 2018. "Wet Laws, Drinking Establishments and Violent Crime," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(611), pages 1333-1366, June.
    15. Christopher Carpenter & Carlos Dobkin, 2011. "The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Public Health," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 133-156, Spring.
    16. Zheng, Emily Yiying, 2018. "Can technology really help to reduce underage drinking? New evidence on the effects of false ID laws with scanner provisions," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 102-112.
    17. Francis-Tan, Andrew & Tan, Cheryl & Zhang, Ruhan, 2018. "School spirit: Exploring the long-term effects of the U.S. temperance movement on educational attainment," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 162-169.
    18. Kai Barron & Luis F. Gamboa & Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes, 2019. "Behavioural Response to a Sudden Health Risk: Dengue and Educational Outcomes in Colombia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 620-644, April.
    19. Rik Chakraborti & Gavin Roberts, 2023. "How price-gouging regulation undermined COVID-19 mitigation: county-level evidence of unintended consequences," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 196(1), pages 51-83, July.
    20. Ceren Ertan Yörük & Barış Yörük, 2015. "Alcohol consumption and risky sexual behavior among young adults: evidence from minimum legal drinking age laws," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 133-157, January.
    21. Damian Clarke & Kathya Tapia-Schythe, 2021. "Implementing the panel event study," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(4), pages 853-884, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:4:p:938-955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.