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The Effect of FOMC Votes on Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Madeira

    (Central Bank of Chile)

  • João Madeira

    (University of York)

Abstract

This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Madeira & João Madeira, 2019. "The Effect of FOMC Votes on Financial Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 921-932, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:101:y:2019:i:5:p:921-932
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    Cited by:

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    2. Carlos Madeira, 2020. "Measuring the perceived value of an MBA degree," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 876, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Cárdenas, Miguel & Madeira, Carlos & Morales-Resendiz, Raúl & Musa, Miguel & Sanclemente, Mario & Sanz-Bunster, Leon, 2024. "Tiered access in RTGS systems: A DLT-based approach," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    4. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Financial Markets and Dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202048, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Gnan, Phillipp & Rieder, Kilian, 2023. "Central bank communication by ??? The economics of public policy leaks," Working Paper Series 2846, European Central Bank.
    7. Bordo, Michael & Istrefi, Klodiana, 2023. "Perceived FOMC: The making of hawks, doves and swingers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 125-143.
    8. Madeira, Carlos & Salazar, Leonardo, 2023. "The impact of monetary policy on a labor market with heterogeneous workers: The case of Chile," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    9. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Maurer, Tim D. & Nitschka, Thomas, 2023. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Carlos Madeira & João Madeira & Paulo Santos Monteiro, 2023. "The origins of monetary policy disagreement: the role of supply and demand shocks," BIS Working Papers 1118, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas & Deimantė Vasiliauskaitė, 2024. "ECB monetary policy communication events: Do they move euro area yields?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 596-625, April.
    14. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Asset Price Spillovers from Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Global Empirical Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 43-74, June.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
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    17. Davide Romelli & Hamza Bennani, 2021. "Disagreement inside the FOMC: New Insights from Tone Analysis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    18. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Victor Maia, 2023. "The reaction of disagreements in inflation expectations to fiscal sentiment obtained from information in official communiqués," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 828-859, October.
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