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The dissent voting behaviour of central bankers: what do we really know?

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  • Roman Horvath
  • Marek Rusnak
  • Katerina Smidkova
  • Jan Zapal

Abstract

We examine the determinants of the dissent in central bank boards voting records about monetary policy rates in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Sweden, the UK and the US. In contrast to previous studies, we consider 25 different macroeconomic, financial, institutional, psychological or preference-related factors jointly and use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to formally assess the attendant model uncertainty. We find that the rate of dissent is between 5% and 20% for the examined central banks. Our results suggest that most of the examined regressors, including factors that capture the effects of inflation and output, are not robust determinants of voting dissent. This result suggests that unobserved characteristics of central bankers and different communication strategies drive the dissent, rather than the level of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2014. "The dissent voting behaviour of central bankers: what do we really know?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 450-461, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:4:p:450-461
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2013.851775
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    Cited by:

    1. Tillmann, Peter, 2021. "Financial markets and dissent in the ECB’s Governing Council," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Carlos Madeira & João Madeira, 2019. "The Effect of FOMC Votes on Financial Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 921-932, December.
    3. Horváth, Roman & Jonášová, Júlia, 2015. "Central banks' voting records, the financial crisis and future monetary policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 229-243.
    4. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Mahieu, Ronald & Raes, Louis, 2013. "Estimating the preferences of central bankers: an analysis of four voting records," CEPR Discussion Papers 9602, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    6. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Measuring Monetary Policy Stress for Fed District Representatives," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 156-176, May.
    8. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb14/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Eichler, Stefan & Lähner, Tom, 2017. "Career experience, political effects, and voting behavior in the Riksbank’s Monetary Policy Committee," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 55-58.
    11. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    12. Hamza Bennani & Etienne Farvaque & Piotr Stanek, 2015. "FOMC members’ incentives to disagree: regional motives and background influences," NBP Working Papers 221, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    13. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb12/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bennani, Hamza & Farvaque, Etienne & Stanek, Piotr, 2018. "Influence of regional cycles and personal background on FOMC members’ preferences and disagreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 416-424.
    15. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb13/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb14/1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2016. "Monetary Policy Committees, Voting Behavior and Ideal Points," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1628, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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