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Do Anti-Poverty Programs Sway Voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Blattman

    (University of Chicago)

  • Mathilde Emeriau

    (Stanford University)

  • Nathan Fiala

    (University of Connecticut, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Makerere University, and RWI—Leibniz Institute for Economic Research)

Abstract

High-impact policies may not lead to support for the political party that introduces them. In 2008, Uganda’s government encouraged groups of youth to submit proposals to start enterprises. Of 535 eligible groups, a random 265 received grants of nearly $400 per person. Prior work showed that after four years, the Youth Opportunities Program raised employment by 17% and earnings by 38%. Here we show that recipients were no more likely to support the ruling party in elections. Rather, recipients slightly increased campaigning and voting for the opposition. Potential mechanisms include program misattribution, group socialization, and financial independence freeing voters from transactional voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Blattman & Mathilde Emeriau & Nathan Fiala, 2018. "Do Anti-Poverty Programs Sway Voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 891-905, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:100:y:2018:i:5:p:891-905
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baez Ramirez,Javier Eduardo & Camacho,Adriana & Conover, Emily & Zarate,Roman Andres, 2012. "Conditional cash transfers, political participation, and voting behavior," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6215, The World Bank.
    2. Kosuke Imai & Gary King & Carlos Velasco Rivera, 2016. "Do Nonpartisan Programmatic Policies Have Partisan Electoral Effects? Evidence from Two Large Scale Randomized Experiments," Working Paper 366526, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Keele, Luke & Tingley, Dustin & Teppei Yamamoto, "undated". "Identifying Mechanisms behind Policy Interventions via Causal Mediation Analysis," Working Paper 135661, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee, 2013. "Microcredit Under the Microscope: What Have We Learned in the Past Two Decades, and What Do We Need to Know?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 487-519, May.
    5. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Elections and development #NeverLetAGoodDeedGoUnpunished
      by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo on 2017-01-18 10:39:24

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Paul J. Gertler & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro & Simeon Nichter, 2022. "Vulnerability and Clientelism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3627-3659, November.
    2. Christopher Blattman & Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, 2018. "The Long Term Impacts of Grants on Poverty: 9-year Evidence From Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program," NBER Working Papers 24999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Duchoslav, Jan & Kenamu, Edwin & Thunde, Jack, 2023. "Targeting hunger or votes? The political economy of humanitarian transfers in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Margherita Calderone, 2017. "Are there different spillover effects from cash transfers to men and women? Impacts on investments in education in post-war Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series 093, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Amal Ahmad, 2024. "Transfers and the rise of Hindu nationalism in India," Discussion Papers 2024-08, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    6. Pinto, Thiago L.S. & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2023. "How politics can influence the allocation of social program benefits: A case study of the Brazilian poverty reduction program Bolsa Família," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 77-89.
    7. Margherita Calderone, 2017. "Are there different spillover effects from cash transfers to men and women?: Impacts on investments in education in post-war Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-93, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. G. Andersen, Asbjørn & Franklin, Simon & Getahun, Tigabu & Kotsadam, Andreas & Somville, Vincent & Villanger, Espen, 2023. "Does wealth reduce support for redistribution? Evidence from an Ethiopian housing lottery," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    9. Lewis, Blane D. & Nguyen, Hieu T.M. & Hendrawan, Adrianus, 2020. "Political accountability and public service delivery in decentralized Indonesia: Incumbency advantage and the performance of second term mayors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Blattman, Chris & Fiala, Nathan & Martinez, Sebastian, 2019. "The long term impacts of grants on poverty: 9-year evidence from Uganda’s Youth Opportunities Program," SocArXiv vctuh, Center for Open Science.
    11. Shruthi Mohan Menon & Gerard Rassendren, 2022. "Analysis of determinants of voter turnout in Indian states for election years 1991–2019," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 30-45, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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