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Do anti-poverty programs sway voters? Experimental evidence from Uganda

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  • Blattman, Christopher
  • Emeriau, Mathilde
  • Fiala, Nathan

Abstract

High-impact policies may not lead to support for the political party that introduces them. In 2008, Uganda's government encouraged groups of youth to submit proposals to start enterprises. Of 535 eligible groups, a random 265 received grants of nearly $400 per person. Prior work showed that after four years, the Youth Opportunities Program raised employment by 17% and earnings by 38%. Here we show that recipients were no more likely to support the ruling party in elections. Rather, recipients slightly increased campaigning and voting for the opposition. Potential mechanisms include program misattribution, group socialization, and financial independence freeing voters from transactional voting.

Suggested Citation

  • Blattman, Christopher & Emeriau, Mathilde & Fiala, Nathan, 2018. "Do anti-poverty programs sway voters? Experimental evidence from Uganda," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101663, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:101663
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/101663/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pinto, Thiago L.S. & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2023. "How politics can influence the allocation of social program benefits: A case study of the Brazilian poverty reduction program Bolsa Família," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 77-89.
    2. Duchoslav, Jan & Kenamu, Edwin & Thunde, Jack, 2023. "Targeting hunger or votes? The political economy of humanitarian transfers in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Christopher Blattman & Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, 2018. "The Long Term Impacts of Grants on Poverty: 9-year Evidence From Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program," NBER Working Papers 24999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. G. Andersen, Asbjørn & Franklin, Simon & Getahun, Tigabu & Kotsadam, Andreas & Somville, Vincent & Villanger, Espen, 2023. "Does wealth reduce support for redistribution? Evidence from an Ethiopian housing lottery," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Lewis, Blane D. & Nguyen, Hieu T.M. & Hendrawan, Adrianus, 2020. "Political accountability and public service delivery in decentralized Indonesia: Incumbency advantage and the performance of second term mayors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Blattman, Chris & Fiala, Nathan & Martinez, Sebastian, 2019. "The long term impacts of grants on poverty: 9-year evidence from Uganda’s Youth Opportunities Program," SocArXiv vctuh, Center for Open Science.
    7. Shruthi Mohan Menon & Gerard Rassendren, 2022. "Analysis of determinants of voter turnout in Indian states for election years 1991–2019," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 30-45, June.
    8. Amal Ahmad, 2024. "Transfers and the rise of Hindu nationalism in India," Discussion Papers 2024-08, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).

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