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Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport

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  • Antonio García-Ferrer
  • Marcos Bujosa
  • Aránzazu de Juan
  • Pilar Poncela

Abstract

This paper is related to the choice of alternative types of public transport modes and its incidence in the Madrid Metropolitan Area. When planning transport facilities, two conditions are needed: efficient estimation of the users' response to changes in prices and in the characteristics of the services; and reliable predictions of demand. These two conditions are the main objectives of this paper. Given a monthly database, the authors address the first objective using a causal econometric model. As a baseline for forecasting comparisons, they also use new variants of univariate unobserved components models. Forecasting evaluation is based on a variety of accuracy measures to avoid misleading conclusions. © 2006 LSE and the University of Bath

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio García-Ferrer & Marcos Bujosa & Aránzazu de Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2006. "Demand Forecast and Elasticities Estimation of Public Transport," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 40(1), pages 45-67, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpe:jtecpo:v:40:y:2006:i:1:p:45-67
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Milioti, Christina P. & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2014. "Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens, Greece," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 88-95.
    2. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà, 2010. "What shapes local public transportation in Europe? Economics, mobility, institutions, and geography," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 775-790, September.
    3. T. M. Fullerton & A. G. Walke, 2013. "Public transportation demand in a border metropolitan economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3922-3931, September.
    4. José Manuel Vassallo & Pablo Pérez De Villar & Ramón Muñoz‐Raskin & Tomás Serebrisky, 2008. "Public Transport Funding Policy in Madrid: Is There Room for Improvement?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 261-278, July.
    5. Simona Bigerna & Paolo Polinori, 2011. "The Analysis of Determinants of Public Transport Demand in the City of Perugia," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 119(2), pages 109-142.
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    Cited by:

    1. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
    2. Burguillo, Mercedes & Romero-Jordán, Desiderio & Sanz-Sanz, José Félix, 2017. "The new public transport pricing in Madrid Metropolitan Area: A welfare analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 25-36.
    3. João M. Pinto & Mário Coutinho dos Santos & Pedro Verga Matos, 2021. "Contracting Out Public Transit Services: An Incentive Performance-Based Approach," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 02, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    4. Hörcher, Daniel & Tirachini, Alejandro, 2021. "A review of public transport economics," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    5. Anna Matas, 2003. "Demand and revenue implications of an integrated public transport policy. The case of," Working Papers wpdea0304, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    6. A.S.M. Arroyo & A. de Juan Fern¨¢ndez, 2014. "Split-then-Combine Method for out-of-sample Combinations of Forecasts," Journal of Business Administration Research, Journal of Business Administration Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(1), pages 19-37, April.
    7. Milioti, Christina P. & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2014. "Estimating multimodal public transport mode shares in Athens, Greece," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 88-95.
    8. Gkritza, Konstantina & Karlaftis, Matthew G. & Mannering, Fred L., 2011. "Estimating multimodal transit ridership with a varying fare structure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 148-160, February.
    9. Melo, Patricia C. & Sobreira, Nuno & Goulart, Pedro, 2019. "Estimating the long-run metro demand elasticities for Lisbon: A time-varying approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 360-376.
    10. Hernández-Díaz, Alfredo G. & García Cobián, Emilio Carlos, 2014. "Elasticidad precio de la demanda y perfil de los usuarios de la parada “Pablo de Olavide" de Metro de Sevilla || Price Elasticity of Demand and Profile of “Pablo de Olavide" Metro Stop's Use," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 17(1), pages 80-100, June.
    11. Anna Matas, 2003. "Demand and Revenue Implications of an Integrated Public Transport Policy: The Case of Madrid," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 195-217, May.
    12. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà, 2010. "What shapes local public transportation in Europe? Economics, mobility, institutions, and geography," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 775-790, September.
    13. Wang, Jiangbo & Yamamoto, Toshiyuki & Liu, Kai, 2021. "Spatial dependence and spillover effects in customized bus demand: Empirical evidence using spatial dynamic panel models," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 166-180.
    14. Youzhi Zeng & Bin Ran & Ning Zhang & Xiaobao Yang, 2021. "Estimating the Price Elasticity of Train Travel Demand and Its Variation Rules and Application in Energy Used and CO 2 Emissions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Milioti, Christina & Karlaftis, Matthew G., 2015. "Modelling spillover effects of public transportation means: An intra-modal GVAR approach for Athens," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-18.
    16. ur Rehman, Naveed & Hijazi, Mohamad & Uzair, Muhammad, 2020. "Solar potential assessment of public bus routes for solar buses," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 193-200.

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