IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tou/journl/v54y2021p117-144.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Untapped export potential in developing countries: evidence from the car industry

Author

Listed:
  • Antoine ABI ZEID

    (Université Sorbonne Nouvelle IHEAL CREDA – UMR 7227)

Abstract

Car production is moving from North to South, and carmaker ownership is moving from West to East. Meanwhile, new carmakers are arising in China, India, and Iran. Car exports in developing countries increased over the 2007-2015 period. However, their share in global exports is still low. In this sense, exports are the last bastion of the North. The in-crease in car exports could accelerate the indigenous capacity building, especially in China. In this paper, we identify the determinants of car exports in the case of developing coun-tries. Then, we measure their capacity to increase the latter. The results are discussed in light of various industrial strategies implemented in these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine ABI ZEID, 2021. "Untapped export potential in developing countries: evidence from the car industry," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 54, pages 117-144.
    • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:54:y:2021:p:117-144
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://regionetdeveloppement.univ-tln.fr/wp-content/uploads/7_Abi-Zeid-formate.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2019. "Misfits in the car industry: Offshore assembly decisions at the variety level," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 90-105.
    2. Daria Taglioni & Richard Baldwin, 2014. "Gravity chains: Estimating bilateral trade flows when parts and components trade is important," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 61-82, November.
    3. Alan V. Deardorff, 2014. "Local comparative advantage: Trade costs and the pattern of trade," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 10(1), pages 9-35, March.
    4. Michel Freyssenet, 2011. "The start of a second automobile revolution: corporate strategies and public policies," ECONOMIA E POLITICA INDUSTRIALE, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2011(2), pages 69-84.
    5. Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-1398, November.
    6. Bhanupong Nidhiprabha, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Thailand's Export-Oriented Industries," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 128-150, Fall.
    7. Jorge Carrillo & Oscar Contreras, 2008. "The historical evolution of US auto firms in Mexico: two models of local development," International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 382-400.
    8. Vincent Frigant & Martin Zumpe, 2017. "Regionalisation or Globalisation of Automotive Production Networks? Lessons from Import Patterns of Four European Countries," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(4), pages 661-681, December.
    9. Feenstra, Robert & Markusen, James R. & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," CEPR Discussion Papers 2035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Bernard Jullien & Yannick Lung, 2011. "Industrie automobile : la croisée des chemins," Post-Print hal-00798520, HAL.
    11. Jaya Prakash Pradhan & Neelam Singh, 2009. "Outward FDI and Knowledge Flows: A Study of the Indian Automotive Sector," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 1(1), pages 156-187, June.
    12. Yannick Lung, 2000. "Is the Rise of Emerging Countries as Automobile Producers an Irreversible Phenomenon?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: John Humphrey & Yveline Lecler & Mario Sergio Salerno (ed.), Global Strategies and Local Realities, chapter 2, pages 16-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/lmb2g91ru9ipp4r5ubgh2jjtr is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    15. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    16. Theresa M. Greaney & Kozo Kiyota, 2020. "The gravity model and trade in intermediate inputs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(8), pages 2034-2049, August.
    17. Timothy J. Sturgeon & Olga Memedovic & Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Gary Gereffi, 2009. "Globalisation of the automotive industry: main features and trends," International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1/2), pages 7-24.
    18. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    19. Peridy Nicolas J & Abedini Javad, 2008. "The Growing Influence of Emerging Countries in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of Export Potentials in a World Trade Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-28, September.
    20. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    21. Alessia Amighini, 2012. "Chinese FDI in the European Automotive Sector," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Luciano Ciravegna (ed.), Sustaining Industrial Competitiveness after the Crisis, chapter 5, pages 114-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    22. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    23. Michel Freyssenet, 2011. "The start of a Second Automobile Revolution Corporate strategies and public policies," Post-Print hal-03469102, HAL.
    24. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    25. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
    26. Moekti P. Soejachmoen, 2016. "Globalization of the Automotive Industry: Is Indonesia Missing Out?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, Winter/Sp.
    27. Javad Abedini & Nicolas Péridy, 2009. "The Emergence of Iran in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of its Export Potential," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 790-818, May.
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/440rksastq8ibo5nrspvcj7teo is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Fatima Olanike Kareem & Olayinka Idowu Kareem, 2014. "Specification and Estimation of Gravity Models: A Review of the Issues in the Literature," RSCAS Working Papers 2014/74, European University Institute.
    30. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kareem, Fatima Olanike & Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2016. "Fitting the Gravity Model when Zero Trade Flows are Frequent: a Comparison of Estimation Techniques using Africa's Trade Data," GlobalFood Discussion Papers 230588, Georg-August-Universitaet Goettingen, GlobalFood, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development.
    2. Maria Cipollina & Luca De Benedictis & Luca Salvatici & Claudio Vicarelli, 2016. "Policy Measurement And Multilateral Resistance In Gravity Models," Working Papers LuissLab 16130, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    3. Shumilov, Andrei, 2017. "Оценивание Гравитационных Моделей Международной Торговли: Обзор Основных Подходов [Estimating gravity models of international trade: a survey of methods]," MPRA Paper 79790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Wessel, Jan, 2019. "Evaluating the transport-mode-specific trade effects of different transport infrastructure types," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-57.
    6. Stacy Julius & Nnanna P. Azu & Maimuna Y. Muhammad, 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Terrorism in Trade Development in the SADC Region: A Gravity Model Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 9(10), pages 1147-1159, October.
    7. Silviano Esteve-Pérez & Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero, 2020. "Does the GATT/WTO promote trade? After all, Rose was right," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(2), pages 377-405, May.
    8. Jacqueline Karlsson & Helena Melin & Kevin Cullinane, 2018. "The impact of potential Brexit scenarios on German car exports to the UK: an application of the gravity model," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    10. Rebecca Freeman & Mario Larch & Angelos Theodorakopoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Trade Costs and Trade Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9432, CESifo.
    11. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    12. Rodolfo Metulini & Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith, 2018. "A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    14. Theresa M. Greaney & Kozo Kiyota, 2020. "The gravity model and trade in intermediate inputs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(8), pages 2034-2049, August.
    15. Rodolfo Metulini & Paolo Sgrignoli & Stefano Schiavo & Massimo Riccaboni, 2018. "The network of migrants and international trade," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 763-787, December.
    16. Randolph Luca Bruno & Nauro Ferreira Campos & Saul Estrin, 2021. "The Effect on Foreign Direct Investment of Membership in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 802-821, July.
    17. Marta Bengoa & Blanca Sanchez-Robles & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2020. "Do Trade and Investment Agreements Promote Foreign Direct Investment within Latin America? Evidence from a Structural Gravity Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-32, October.
    18. Bruno, Randolph Luca & Campos, Nauro & Estrin, Saul & Tian, Meng, 2017. "Economic integration, foreign investment and international trade: the effects of membership of the European Union," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86615, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Felix Groba & Jing Cao, 2015. "Chinese Renewable Energy Technology Exports: The Role of Policy, Innovation and Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 60(2), pages 243-283, February.
    20. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Automotive industry; Developing countries; Export potential; Empirical gravity model; Hausman-Taylor estimator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:54:y:2021:p:117-144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christophe Van Huffel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/letlnfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.