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NiReMS: A regional model at household level combining spatial econometrics with dynamic microsimulation

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  • Arnab Bhattacharjee
  • Adrian Pabst
  • Tibor Szendrei
  • Geoffrey J. D. Hewings

Abstract

The heterogeneous spatial and individual impacts of the Great Recession, Brexit and COVID-19 have generated an important challenge for macroeconomic and regional/spatial modellers to consider greater integration of their approaches. Focusing on agent heterogeneity at the ITL 1 level in the UK, we propose the National Institute Regional Modelling System (NiReMS) – a synthesis of dynamic microsimulation with a spatial regional macroeconometric model. The model gives regional macro projections while allowing for household level inference. To showcase the model, we explore the impact of discontinuing the uplift in Universal Credit (UC) before the end of the pandemic and show that it led to more households consuming less. Importantly, the proposed framework highlights the unequal distributional impact across regions of the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnab Bhattacharjee & Adrian Pabst & Tibor Szendrei & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2024. "NiReMS: A regional model at household level combining spatial econometrics with dynamic microsimulation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 436-461, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:19:y:2024:i:3:p:436-461
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2024.2333978
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Pabst, Adrian & Robyn Smith & Szendrei, Tibor, 2024. "Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 14, pages 48-75.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D6 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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