Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions

Living standards as defined by real household disposable income are projected to rise by 1.9 per cent on average in 2024-25 across all income deciles but will be below pre-pandemic levels: for households in income deciles 1-4, living standards will be between 7 and 20 per cent lower in 2024-25 compared with 2019-20. For the poorest 10 per cent, the fall in real income since 2019-20 is about £4,500 (in current prices): their living standards are lower by some 18 per cent compared with the pre-pandemic levels. Tighter monetary policy has considerably limited the hit to household finances from the inflation shock, but there are some distributional differences, with the bottom half of the income distribution sustaining a larger impact than the richest households: the rise in the costs of mortgages and unsecured loans for people in income deciles 1-5 has been higher by some 2 per cent on average than people in the top income decile. Recent strong wage growth has reduced the gap between the top income percentile and the bottom income percentile: this is especially apparent in the North East where the bottom percentile has experienced the greatest year-on-year growth in average earnings of 17.1 per cent in 2022-23 compared to the UK average of 8.5 per cent growth (relative to 2021-22). The ONS has revised down its UK-wide estimates of employment, but we find that this has a negligible spatial impact: with respect to employment, there are no significant changes to the regional variation between the UK's top performing and worst performing areas. The parlous state of local government finances threatens both the provision of basic public services on which the most vulnerable people depend and the prospect for a revival of struggling heartland communities: Local Authorities have seen deep cuts in central government funding without being able to raise extra revenue, while facing increased demand for essential services whose costs are rising faster than inflation (Box C). Urgent action is required to help Local Authorities in distress and regenerate the regions: support local government finances, by plugging the funding gap of £4 billion including a reform of council tax, and a credible commitment to maintain public investment at 4 per cent of GDP per year and productivity beyond the next general election.