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The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age–period–cohort analysis

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  • Jona Schellekens

Abstract

In the 1950s and 1960s there was an unprecedented marriage boom in the United States. This was followed in the 1970s by a marriage bust. Some argue that both phenomena are cohort effects, while others argue that they are period effects. The study reported here tested the major period and cohort theories of the marriage boom and bust, by estimating an age–period–cohort model of first marriage for the years 1925–79 using census microdata. The results of the analysis indicate that the marriage boom was mostly a period effect, although there were also cohort influences. More specifically, the hypothesis that the marriage boom was mostly a response to rising wages is shown to be consistent with the data. However, much of the marriage bust can be accounted for by unidentified cohort influences, at least until 1980.

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  • Jona Schellekens, 2017. "The marriage boom and marriage bust in the United States: An age–period–cohort analysis," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(1), pages 65-82, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:1:p:65-82
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2016.1271140
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard A. Easterlin, 1968. "Population, Labor Force, and Long Swings in Economic Growth: The American Experience," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number east68-1.
    2. Goldin, Claudia, 1992. "Understanding the Gender Gap: An Economic History of American Women," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195072709.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Jona Schellekens, 2019. "Explaining Disability Trends in the United States, 1963–2015," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(4), pages 819-834, December.
    2. Jona Schellekens & David Gliksberg, 2018. "The Decline in Marriage in Israel, 1960–2007: Period or Cohort Effect?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(1), pages 119-142, February.

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