IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/quantf/v6y2006i4p297-326.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of drawdowns and drawups in the US$ interest-rate market

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Rebonato
  • Valerio Gaspari

Abstract

We investigate the statistical properties of drawdowns and drawups in interest rates (US$) using over 10 years' worth of daily data. We analyse the nature of the drawdowns in terms of length of runs, magnitude of the individual price moves and coincidence of their occurrence across the maturity spectrum. We document significant positive autocorrelation for several holding periods, pronounced term structure effects and an unexpectedly low degree of coincidence in the occurrence of drawdowns across the maturity spectrum (despite high correlation in daily moves). By drawing on previous work by Rebonato et al. (2005) we try to provide a coherent explanation for a complex set of empirical observations. An essential ingredient of this explanation appears to be the existence of at least two distinct types (normal and excited) of price dynamics, with different serial correlation properties. We concur with the results by Sornette and Johansen (Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes. Quant. Finance, 2001, 1, 452-471) for different asset classes that very large drawdowns belong to the 'undemocratic' case, and may therefore result from an amplification mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Rebonato & Valerio Gaspari, 2006. "Analysis of drawdowns and drawups in the US$ interest-rate market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 297-326.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:4:p:297-326
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680600680555
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697680600680555
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14697680600680555?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qiao, Hongzhu & Tsokos, Chris P., 1994. "Parameter estimation of the Weibull probability distribution," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 47-55.
    2. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
    3. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    4. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    5. Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521530927, November.
    6. Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521824019, November.
    7. Benjamin Cohen & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Positive feedback trading under stress: evidence from the US Treasury securities market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 148-180, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Anders Johansen, 2004. "Origin of Crashes in 3 US stock markets: Shocks and Bubbles," Papers cond-mat/0401210, arXiv.org.
    9. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
    10. Riccardo Rebonato & Dherminder Kainth, 2004. "A Two-Regime, Stochastic-Volatility Extension Of The Libor Market Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(05), pages 555-575.
    11. Riccardo Rebonato & Mark Joshi, 2002. "A Joint Empirical And Theoretical Investigation Of The Modes Of Deformation Of Swaption Matrices: Implications For Model Choice," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(07), pages 667-694.
    12. Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2004. "Price Discovery in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Impact of Orderflow and Liquidity on the Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2623-2654, December.
    13. Johansen, Anders, 2004. "Origin of crashes in three US stock markets: shocks and bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 338(1), pages 135-142.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, October.
    2. Mendes, Beatriz Vaz de Melo & Lavrado, Rafael Coelho, 2017. "Implementing and testing the Maximum Drawdown at Risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 95-100.
    3. Ren, Fei & Zhong, Li-Xin, 2012. "The price impact asymmetry of institutional trading in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2667-2677.
    4. Fei Ren & Li-Xin Zhong, 2011. "Price impact asymmetry of institutional trading in Chinese stock market," Papers 1110.3133, arXiv.org.
    5. Riccardo Rebonato & Jian Chen, 2009. "Evidence for state transition and altered serial codependence in US$ interest rates," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 259-278.
    6. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Werneck, Filipe K., 2009. "Can we predict crashes? The case of the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1603-1609.
    2. George Chang & James Feigenbaum, 2006. "A Bayesian analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 15-36.
    3. Lin, L. & Ren, R.E. & Sornette, D., 2014. "The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-225.
    4. Rossi, S & Tinn, K, 2012. "Man or Machine? Rational trading without information about fundamentals," Working Papers 12194, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
    5. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2009. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 206-233, March.
    6. Decamps, Jean-Paul & Lovo, Stefano, 2006. "Informational cascades with endogenous prices: The role of risk aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 109-120, February.
    7. Loisel, O. & Pommeret, A. & Portier, T., 2012. "Monetary Policy and Herd Behavior: Leaning Against Bubbles," Working papers 412, Banque de France.
    8. Christopher Boortz & Simon Jurkatis & Stephanie Kremer & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Institutional Herding in Financial Markets: New Evidence through the Lens of a Simulated Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1336, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2006. "Transaction Costs and Informational Cascades in Financial Markets: Theory and Experimental Evidence," WEF Working Papers 0008, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
    10. Andreas Park & Daniel Sgroi, 2008. "Herding and Contrarianism in a Financial Trading Experiment with Endogenous Timing," Working Papers tecipa-341, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    11. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1427-1443, December.
    12. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Christophe Chamley, 2005. "Complementarities in Information Acquisition with Short-Term Trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-156, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    14. Cipriani Marco & Guarino Antonio, 2008. "Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, October.
    15. Testa, Alessia, 2012. "Path-Dependent Behavior with Asymmetric Information about Traders' Types," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 388, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    16. Filimonov, Vladimir & Bicchetti, David & Maystre, Nicolas & Sornette, Didier, 2014. "Quantification of the high level of endogeneity and of structural regime shifts in commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 174-192.
    17. Dieter Nautz, "undated". "Herding in financial markets: Bridging the gap between theory and evidence," BDPEMS Working Papers 2013002, Berlin School of Economics.
    18. Boortz, Christopher K. & Jurkatis, Simon & Kremer, Stephanie & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "The impact of information risk and market stress on institutional trading: New evidence through the lens of a simulated herd model," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79728, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Christophe Bisière & Jean-Paul Décamps & Stefano Lovo, 2015. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating, and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1378-1397, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:6:y:2006:i:4:p:297-326. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.