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Man or machine? Rational trading without information about fundamentals

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  • Rossi, Stefano
  • Tinn, Katrin

Abstract

We present a model of quantitative trading as an automated system under human supervision. Contrary to previous literature we show that price-contingent trading is the profitable equilibrium strategy of large rational agents in efficient markets. The key ingredient is uncertainty about whether a large trader is informed about fundamentals. Even when uninformed, he still learns more from prices than market participants who still wonder about whether he is informed. Therefore, he will trade a non-zero quantity based on past prices, whose direction ? trend-following or contrarian ? depends on parameters. When informed, he will trade on that information and disregard the algorithm. One implication is that future order flow is predictable even if markets are semi-strong efficient by construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Stefano & Tinn, Katrin, 2014. "Man or machine? Rational trading without information about fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 9958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9958
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kyle model; Log-concavity; Rational expectations; Rational price-contingent trading;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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