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Predicting recovery rates using logistic quantile regression with bounded outcomes

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  • Jhao-Siang Siao
  • Ruey-Ching Hwang
  • Chih-Kang Chu

Abstract

Logistic quantile regression (LQR) is used for studying recovery rates. It is developed using monotone transformations. Using Moody’s Ultimate Recovery Database, we show that the recovery rates in different partitions of the estimation sample have different distributions, and thus for predicting recovery rates, an error-minimizing quantile point over each of those partitions is determined for LQR. Using an expanding rolling window approach, the empirical results confirm that LQR with the error-minimizing quantile point has better and more robust out-of-sample performance than its competing alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate predicted recovery rates. Thus, LQR is a useful alternative for studying recovery rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Jhao-Siang Siao & Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu, 2016. "Predicting recovery rates using logistic quantile regression with bounded outcomes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 777-792, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:16:y:2016:i:5:p:777-792
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2015.1059952
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    1. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pascal François, 2019. "The Determinants of Market-Implied Recovery Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Serena Gallo, 2021. "Fintech platforms: Lax or careful borrowers’ screening?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, December.
    3. Chih-Kang Chu & Ruey-Ching Hwang, 2019. "Predicting Loss Distributions for Small-Size Defaulted-Debt Portfolios Using a Convolution Technique that Allows Probability Masses to Occur at Boundary Points," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 95-117, August.
    4. Hwang, Ruey-Ching & Chu, Chih-Kang & Yu, Kaizhi, 2020. "Predicting LGD distributions with mixed continuous and discrete ordinal outcomes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1003-1022.
    5. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Dong, Manh Cuong & Liu, Nathan & Sriboonchitta, Songsak, 2019. "Inferences of default risk and borrower characteristics on P2P lending," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu & Kaizhi Yu, 2021. "Predicting the Loss Given Default Distribution with the Zero-Inflated Censored Beta-Mixture Regression that Allows Probability Masses and Bimodality," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 143-172, June.
    7. Sopitpongstorn, Nithi & Silvapulle, Param & Gao, Jiti & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2021. "Local logit regression for loan recovery rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Dong, Manh Cuong & Tian, Shaonan & Chen, Cathy W.S., 2018. "Predicting failure risk using financial ratios: Quantile hazard model approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 204-220.
    9. Yao, Xiao & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2017. "Enhancing two-stage modelling methodology for loss given default with support vector machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 679-689.
    10. Bonollo Michele & Persio Luca Di & Prezioso Luca, 2018. "The Default Risk Charge approach to regulatory risk measurement processes," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 309-330, December.

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