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The Russian growth path and TFP changes in light of estimation of the production function using quarterly data

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  • Masaaki Kuboniwa

Abstract

This article presents estimations of a Cobb-Douglas production function with a steady change in total factor productivity (TFP) for the Russian economy using quarterly data for the favourable period 1998Q3-2008Q2 and the period 1995Q1-2010Q2 as well. Compiling our baseline data on capital and labour adjusted for utilisation, we explicitly present estimations of the coefficients (the capital distribution ratio and TFP) of the production function, which show that TFP is the major growth source, followed by the capital contribution. We also show results of the measurement of Russia's GDP gaps as the differences between potential and actual GDP based on the production function and the Hodrick-Prescott filter.

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  • Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2011. "The Russian growth path and TFP changes in light of estimation of the production function using quarterly data," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 311-325.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:23:y:2011:i:3:p:311-325
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2011.595269
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    1. Kuboniwa, Masaaki & 久保庭, 眞彰, 2010. "Diagnosing the “Russian Disease”: Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy Then and Now," RRC Working Paper Series 28, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 2000/032, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Бессонов В. А., 2004. "О Динамике Совокупной Факторной Производительности В Российской Переходной Экономике," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 8(4), pages 542-587.
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    2. Voskoboynikov, Ilya & Solanko, Laura, 2014. "When high growth is not enough: Rethinking Russia's pre-crisis economic performance," BOFIT Policy Briefs 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Ville Kaitila, 2016. "GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 129-145, April.
    4. Alexander S. Skorobogatov, 2016. "Spatial Equilibrium Approach to the Analysis of Income Differentials Across Russian Cities," HSE Working papers WP BRP 149/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    6. Korhonen, Iikka, 2021. "Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19," BOFIT Policy Briefs 9/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. Skorobogatov, Alexander S., 2018. "Why do newer cities promise higher wages in Russia?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 16-34.
    8. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Prices, Total Factor Productivity and Institutional Weakness on Russia’s Declining Growth," RRC Working Paper Series 49, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the impact of oil prices on oil-rich emerging economies in the Pacific Rim," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 328-339.
    10. Gregory Brock, 2016. "Creative destruction on the Chechen frontier?," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 220-231, April.
    11. E. A. Orlova & D. R. Belousov & D. I. Galimov, 2020. "A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 171-180, March.
    12. Korhonen, Iikka, 2015. "How fast can Russia grow?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 10/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Brock, Gregory, 2019. "A remote sensing look at the economy of a Russian region (Rostov) adjacent to the Ukrainian crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 416-431.
    14. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2021. "Accounting for growth in the USSR and Russia, 1950–2012," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 870-894, July.
    15. Helena Schweiger & Alexander Stepanov & Paolo Zacchia, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of R&D Place-Based Policies: Evidence from Russian Science Cities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 322-351, August.
    16. World Bank & National Research University – Higher School of Economics, 2013. "Developing Skills for Innovative Growth in the Russian Federation," World Bank Publications - Reports 16100, The World Bank Group.
    17. Brock, Gregory, 2015. "The informal economy of Rostov Oblast on the eve of the Ukrainian refugee crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 789-803.

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