IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/pocoec/v28y2016i2p129-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade

Author

Listed:
  • Ville Kaitila

Abstract

There are different academic assessments of the principal forces behind Russia’s GDP growth. Studies that reconstruct capital stocks using gross fixed capital formation and the perpetual inventory method find that total factor productivity growth has been paramount to GDP growth. On the other hand, capital services datasets that have recently been made available find that capital developments have been instrumental in driving economic growth. We reconstruct a capital stock series for Russia for 1995–2013 and compare the results to two capital services time series using the Solow growth model. We also take into account terms of trade developments that have lent strong support to Russia’s economy. The terms of trade is shown to have been an important factor behind the development of gross fixed capital formation and thus GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Ville Kaitila, 2016. "GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 129-145, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:28:y:2016:i:2:p:129-145
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2015.1124556
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14631377.2015.1124556
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/14631377.2015.1124556?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susanto Basu & Luigi Pascali & Fabio Schiantarelli & Luis Serven, 2022. "Productivity and the Welfare of Nations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1647-1682.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    4. Berlemann, Michael & Wesselhöft, Jan-Erik, 2012. "Estimating Aggregate Capital Stocks Using the Perpetual Inventory Method – New Empirical Evidence for 103 Countries –," Working Paper 125/2012, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    5. Katsuya Ito, 2012. "The impact of oil price volatility on the macroeconomy in Russia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 695-702, June.
    6. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 97-112.
    7. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2012. "Diagnosing the ‘Russian Disease’: Growth and Structure of the Russian Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 54(1), pages 121-148, March.
    9. Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2010. "Terms Of Trade Effects: Theory And Measurement," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 177-205, June.
    10. Robert C. Feenstra & Benjamin R. Mandel & Marshall B. Reinsdorf & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2013. "Effects of Terms of Trade Gains and Tariff Changes on the Measurement of US Productivity Growth," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 59-93, February.
    11. Alexei Izyumov & John Vahaly, 2008. "Old Capital vs. New Investment in Post-Soviet Economies: Conceptual Issues and Estimates," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 79-110, March.
    12. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2012. "New measures of output, labour and capital in industries of the Russian economy," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-123, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    15. Kuboniwa, Masaaki & 久保庭, 眞彰 & クボニワ, マサアキ, 2011. "Russian Growth Path and TFP Changes in Light of the Estimation of Production Function using Quarterly Data," RRC Working Paper Series 30, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    17. World Bank, 2013. "Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding," World Bank Publications - Reports 16691, The World Bank Group.
    18. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Stephen M. Miller & Mukti P. Upadhyay, 2002. "Total Factor Productivity, Human Capital and Outward Orientation: Differences by Stage of Ddevelopment and Geographic Regions," Working papers 2002-33, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    21. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/218, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Diewart, W Erwin & Morrison, Catherine J, 1986. "Adjusting Output and Productivity Indexes for Changes in the Terms of Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(383), pages 659-679, September.
    24. Ryan Macdonald, 2010. "Real Gross Domestic Income, Relative Prices, And Economic Performance Across The Oecd," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(3), pages 498-518, September.
    25. Christian Gianella, 2007. "A Golden Rule for Russia? How a Rule-Based Fiscal Policy Can Allow a Smooth Adjustment to the New Terms of Trade," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 537, OECD Publishing.
    26. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 2006/172, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Macdonald, Ryan, 2010. "Real Gross Domestic Income, Relative Prices and Economic Performance Across the OECD," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2010059e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    28. Masaaki Kuboniwa, 2011. "The Russian growth path and TFP changes in light of estimation of the production function using quarterly data," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 311-325.
    29. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    30. Hock Wong, 2010. "Terms of trade and economic growth in Japan and Korea: an empirical analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 139-158, February.
    31. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2021. "Accounting for growth in the USSR and Russia, 1950–2012," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 870-894, July.
    2. Voskoboynikov, Ilya B., 2017. "Sources of long run economic growth in Russia before and after the global financial crisis," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 348-365.
    3. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2018. "Economic Growth and the Trade of Russian Regions," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 4, pages 92-114.
    4. Gregory Brock & Constantin Ogloblin, 2018. "Russian 1998–2007 TFP decomposed: some inspiration emerging from inherited Soviet legacy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 135-151, May.
    5. Korhonen, Iikka, 2015. "How fast can Russia grow?," BOFIT Policy Briefs 10/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    2. Ulrich Kohli, 2022. "Trading Gains and Productivity: A Törnqvist Approach," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 63-86, Spring.
    3. Llosa, Luis-Gonzalo, 2013. "How Do Terms of Trade Affect Productivity? The Role of Monopolistic Output Markets," Working Papers 2013-007, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Nicholas Oulton, 2021. "The effect of changes in the terms of trade on GDP and welfare: a Divisia approach to the SNA," Discussion Papers 2126, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Tarlok Singh, 2023. "Do terms of trade affect economic growth? Robust evidence from India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(2), pages 491-521, April.
    6. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2021. "Accounting for growth in the USSR and Russia, 1950–2012," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 870-894, July.
    7. Hem C. Basnet & Satis C. Devkota & Mukti P. Upadhyay, 2021. "Terms of trade and real domestic income: New evidence from South and Southeast Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4315-4331, July.
    8. Nicholas Oulton, 2023. "The effect of changes in the terms of trade on GDP and welfare: A Divisia approach to the System of National Accounts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(4), pages 261-282, July.
    9. Paul Corrigan, 2017. "Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study," Staff Working Papers 17-1, Bank of Canada.
    10. Cheng,Wenyin & Fukao,Kyoji & Meng,Bo, 2024. "Global Value Chains: Unveiling the Nexus of Productivity and Welfare," IDE Discussion Papers 933, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    11. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    13. Salim B. Furth, 2010. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Precautionary Savings in Developing Economies," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    14. Robert C. Feenstra & Alan Heston & Marcel P. Timmer & Haiyan Deng, 2009. "Estimating Real Production and Expenditures across Nations: A Proposal for Improving the Penn World Tables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 201-212, February.
    15. Paul Castillo Bardález & Jorge Salas, 2010. "The Terms of Trade as Drivers of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Economies: An Empirical Study," Premio de Banca Central Rodrigo Gómez / Central Banking Award "Rodrigo Gómez", Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, number prg2010eng, July-Dece.
    16. Kuboniwa, Masaaki, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the impact of oil prices on oil-rich emerging economies in the Pacific Rim," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 328-339.
    17. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Håkon Tretvoll, 2021. "Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 173-208, July.
    18. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 804-819, October.
    19. Gregory, Robert G., 2012. "Living standards, terms of trade and foreign ownership: reflections on the Australian mining boom," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 1-30.
    20. E. A. Orlova & D. R. Belousov & D. I. Galimov, 2020. "A Model of Potential GDP and Output Gap for the Russian Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 171-180, March.
    21. Guido Sandleris & Mark L. J. Wright, 2014. "The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity, and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 87-127, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:28:y:2016:i:2:p:129-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CPCE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.