IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ltv/wpaper/200902.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Assessment of Natural Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilisation in Latvia

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksejs Melihovs

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Anna Zasova

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

Inflation and its dynamics are among the most important indicators in the focus of such economic agents as producers, consumers, investors, and monetary and fiscal policy makers. Risks of high inflation or deflation enhance the need to profoundly investigate factors and causes that could underpin materialisation of such risks in the economy and to seek for steps to avert adverse effects of unwelcome inflationary dynamics. Optimal capacity utilisation is one of the ways to escape endogenous pressures that increase inflation or cause deflation. The study pursues the aim to assess short-term relationships between the capacity utilisation rate and inflation. The authors have set a target to determine the capacity utilisation rate at which no pressure is exerted upon inflation and to show whether the capacity utilisation rate of the Latvian economy was an underlying factor that caused a rise in inflation after the EU accession.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2009. "The Assessment of Natural Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilisation in Latvia," Working Papers 2009/02, Latvijas Banka.
  • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200902
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bank.lv/public_files/images/img_lb/izdevumi/english/citas/wp_2009-2_melihovs-zasova.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.macroeconomics.lv/sites/default/files/wp_2009-2_melihovs-zasova.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Gordon, David M, 1988. "The Un-natural Rate of Unemployment: An Econometric Critique of the NAIRU Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 117-123, May.
    3. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304.
    4. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    5. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    6. James K. Galbraith, 1997. "Time to Ditch the NAIRU," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-108, Winter.
    7. Martins Bitans & Dace Slakota & Ivars Tillers, 2001. "Price Dynamics in Latvia - Experience and Future Prospects," Working Papers 2001/01, Latvijas Banka.
    8. A. W. Phillips, 1958. "The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–1957," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November.
    9. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    10. Carol Corrado & Joe Mattey, 1997. "Capacity Utilization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-167, Winter.
    11. Masso, Jaan & Staehr, Karsten, 2005. "Inflation dynamics and nominal adjustment in the Baltic States," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-303, June.
    12. Jørgen Elmeskov, 1993. "High and Persistent Unemployment: Assessment of the Problem and Its Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 132, OECD Publishing.
    13. Niek Nahuis, 2003. "An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1339-1344.
    14. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2007. "Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia," Working Papers 2007/03, Latvijas Banka.
    15. Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & Pete Richardson & Dave Turner, 2003. "Estimating the structural rate of unemployment for the OECD countries," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2001(2), pages 171-216.
    16. Nienke Oomes & Oksana Dynnikova, 2006. "The Utilization-Adjusted Output Gap: Is the Russian Economy Overheating?," IMF Working Papers 2006/068, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    18. Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 441, European Central Bank.
    19. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2015. "Natural and Cyclical Unemployment in Latvia: New Insights from the Beveridge Curve Model," Discussion Papers 2015/02, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Artem Vdovychenko, 2022. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 21-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Richardson Kojo Edeme, 2018. "Providing an Empirical Insight into Nigeria’s Non-acceleration Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 3(2), pages 179-190, July.
    4. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
    5. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "The Kalman Filter Approach for Estimating the Natural Unemployment Rate in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(1), pages 148-159, February.
    6. Agnese Bicevska & Aleksejs Melihovs & Krista Kalnberzina, 2009. "Savings in Latvia," Discussion Papers 2009/01, Latvijas Banka.
    7. Vladimir Mihajlović & Gordana Marjanović, 2020. "Asymmetries in effects of domestic inflation drivers in the Baltic States: a Phillips curve-based nonlinear ARDL approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 94-116.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Rod Cross & Julia Darby & Jonathan Ireland, 1997. "Uncertainties Surrounding Natural Rate Estimates in the G7," Working Papers 9712, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Valerija Botric, 2012. "NAIRU estimates for Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 30(1), pages 163-180.
    4. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1104, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    5. Crary, David B., 2000. "Labor quality, natural unemployment, and US inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 325-336.
    6. Ștefan George & Paraschiv Anca & Volintiru Clara, 2022. "Alternative Unemployment Rates in Romania," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 1491-1504, August.
    7. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    8. Kamel Helali, 2018. "A New Assessment of the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilization in Tunisia," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 21(68), pages 54-77, June.
    9. Antonella Palumbo, 2008. "I metodi di stima del PIL potenziale tra fondamenti di Teoria economica e Contenuto empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    10. Richardson Kojo Edeme, 2018. "Providing an Empirical Insight into Nigeria’s Non-acceleration Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 3(2), pages 179-190, July.
    11. Wolfgang Pollan, 2012. "Incomes Policies, Expectations and the NAIRU," WIFO Working Papers 433, WIFO.
    12. Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
    13. Hein, Eckhard, 2003. "Die NAIRU: Eine post-keynesianische Interpretation," WSI Working Papers 113, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans Böckler Foundation.
    14. Backhouse, Roger E. & Forder, James & Laskaridis, Christina, 2023. "The natural rate of unemployment and the NAIRU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    15. Kajuth, Florian, 2012. "Identifying the Phillips curve through shifts in volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 975-991.
    16. Kromphardt, Jürgen & Logeay, Camille, 2007. "Changes in the Balance of Power Between the Wage and Price Setters and the Central Bank: Consequences for the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU," Kiel Working Papers 1354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    18. G.C. Lim & Robert Dixon & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Phillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(271), pages 371-382, December.
    19. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
    20. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; NAIRCU; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Konstantins Benkovskis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bolgvlv.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.