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The Assessment of Natural Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilisation in Latvia

Author

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  • Aleksejs Melihovs

    (Bank of Latvia)

  • Anna Zasova

    (Bank of Latvia)

Abstract

Inflation and its dynamics are among the most important indicators in the focus of such economic agents as producers, consumers, investors, and monetary and fiscal policy makers. Risks of high inflation or deflation enhance the need to profoundly investigate factors and causes that could underpin materialisation of such risks in the economy and to seek for steps to avert adverse effects of unwelcome inflationary dynamics. Optimal capacity utilisation is one of the ways to escape endogenous pressures that increase inflation or cause deflation. The study pursues the aim to assess short-term relationships between the capacity utilisation rate and inflation. The authors have set a target to determine the capacity utilisation rate at which no pressure is exerted upon inflation and to show whether the capacity utilisation rate of the Latvian economy was an underlying factor that caused a rise in inflation after the EU accession.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2009. "The Assessment of Natural Rate of Unemployment and Capacity Utilisation in Latvia," Working Papers 2009/02, Latvijas Banka.
    • Handle: RePEc:ltv:wpaper:200902
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Agnese Bicevska & Aleksejs Melihovs & Krista Kalnberzina, 2009. "Savings in Latvia," Discussion Papers 2009/01, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    3. Farzana Shaheen & Azad Haider & Sajid Amin Javed, 2011. "Estimating Pakistan's Time Varying Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment: An Unobserved Component Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 172-179.
    4. Vladimir Mihajlović & Gordana Marjanović, 2020. "Asymmetries in effects of domestic inflation drivers in the Baltic States: a Phillips curve-based nonlinear ARDL approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 94-116.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Mark Griffiths & Bertrand Gruss, 2013. "Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 325-388.
    6. Artem Vdovychenko, 2022. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 21-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Richardson Kojo Edeme, 2018. "Providing an Empirical Insight into Nigeria’s Non-acceleration Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 3(2), pages 179-190, July.
    8. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "The Kalman Filter Approach for Estimating the Natural Unemployment Rate in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(1), pages 148-159, February.
    9. Olegs Krasnopjorovs, 2015. "Natural and Cyclical Unemployment in Latvia: New Insights from the Beveridge Curve Model," Discussion Papers 2015/02, Latvijas Banka.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    NAIRU; NAIRCU; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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