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Estimating Output Gap and Potential Output for Russia and Its Usefulness by Forecasting Inflation

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  • Dana Kloudova

    (University of Economics, Prague)

Abstract

This paper deals with an estimation of output gap and potential output for Russian?s economy. Three methods of estimation have been used for estimating these two unobservable variables: Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function and SVAR model. All methods of estimation showed very similar course, although obtained values were not identical. Then obtained values of output gap were used to analyse the ability of output gap to forecast inflation. Two simple gap models were used for this purpose. Results showed that output gap could be used as useful indicator of inflation, according to all methods of estimation output gap. Abstrac Abstract Abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Dana Kloudova, 2015. "Estimating Output Gap and Potential Output for Russia and Its Usefulness by Forecasting Inflation," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 45-59, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:jijoes:v:4:y:2015:i:1:p:45-59
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emmanuel Ziramba & Bernie Zaaruka & Johanna Mumangeni & Charlotte Tjeriko & Jaungura Kaune, 2019. "The Output Gap and Potential Output in Namibia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(5), pages 69-75.
    2. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; HP filter; SVAR model; production function; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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