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Randomisation, Causality and the Role of Reasoned Intuition

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  • Kaushik Basu

Abstract

The method of randomisation has been a major driver in the recent rise to prominence of empirical development economics. It has helped uncover patterns and facts that had earlier escaped attention. But it has also given rise to debate and controversy. This paper evaluates the method of randomisation and concludes that while the method of randomisation is the gold standard for description, and does uncover what is here called "circumstantial causality", it is not able to demonstrate generalised causality. Nor does it, in itself, lead to policy conclusions, as is often claimed by its advocates. To get to policy conclusions requires combining the findings of randomised experiments with human intuition, which, being founded in evolution, has innate strengths. Moreover, even non-randomised empirical methods combined with reasoned intuition can help in crafting a development policy.

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  • Kaushik Basu, 2014. "Randomisation, Causality and the Role of Reasoned Intuition," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 455-472, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oxdevs:v:42:y:2014:i:4:p:455-472
    DOI: 10.1080/13600818.2014.961414
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Response to the Review of ‘Public Policy in an Uncertain World’," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 412-415, August.
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    3. Duflo, Esther & Glennerster, Rachel & Kremer, Michael, 2008. "Using Randomization in Development Economics Research: A Toolkit," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 61, pages 3895-3962, Elsevier.
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    11. Manski, Charles F., 2013. "Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674066892, Spring.
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    3. Pritchett, Lant, 2024. "Investing in human capital in Africa: a framework for research," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123655, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    6. Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2023. "Rural electrification, the credibility revolution, and the limits of evidence-based policy," Ruhr Economic Papers 1051, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Donovan, Kevin P., 2018. "The rise of the randomistas: on the experimental turn in international aid," SocArXiv xygzb, Center for Open Science.
    8. Maruyama, Takao, 2023. "Using evidence to improve and scale up development program in education: A case study from India," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    9. Jörg Peters & Jörg Langbein & Gareth Roberts, 2018. "Generalization in the Tropics – Development Policy, Randomized Controlled Trials, and External Validity," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 34-64.
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