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Asian stock markets, US economic policy uncertainty and US macro-shocks

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  • Michael Donadelli

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between changes in the US macroeconomic conditions and the excess return of 10 Asian stock markets (China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand). My main empirical findings are as follows. First, I find no evidence of a causal relationship (in Granger's sense) between macroeconomic conditions in the US and Asian stock market excess returns. Second, in a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, I find that bull Asian stock markets reduce US economic policy uncertainty. Last, I show that negative US credit and industrial production uncertainty shocks, and positive US stock market volatility shocks have generated a short-run drop in Asian stock markets' performances in the post-subprime crisis era.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Donadelli, 2015. "Asian stock markets, US economic policy uncertainty and US macro-shocks," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 103-133, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:49:y:2015:i:2:p:103-133
    DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2014.890024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Steven B. Kamin & Laurie Pounder DeMarco, 2010. "How did a domestic housing slump turn into a global financial crisis?," International Finance Discussion Papers 994, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2012. "Dynamic Co-movements between Stock Market Returns and Policy Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 42905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saffet Akdağ & Hakan Yıldırım, 2021. "The Effect of Uncertains in European Economic Policies on the BIST 100 Index," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(2), pages 322-331.
    2. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Yiqi Wu & Bin Mo, 2022. "Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 320-333, January.
    3. Liang, Chin Chia & Troy, Carol & Rouyer, Ellen, 2020. "U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Michael Donadelli, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and policymakers’ behavior: evidence from the subprime crisis era," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(4), pages 578-607, September.
    6. Kim Hiang Liow & Yuting Huang & Kai Li Heng, 2019. "Relationship between Foreign Macroeconomic Conditions and Asian-Pacific Public Real Estate Markets: The Relative Influence of the US and China," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Tsung-Pao Wu & Shu-Bing Liu & Shun-Jen Hsueh, 2016. "The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market: A Panel Data Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 109-122, March.
    8. Hassan Zada & Huma Maqsood & Shakeel Ahmed & Muhammad Zeb Khan, 2023. "Information shocks, market returns and volatility: a comparative analysis of developed equity markets in Asia," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, January.

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