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On the determinants of stock market dynamics in emerging countries: the role of economic policy uncertainty in China and India

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  • Mohamed Arouri

    (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020])

  • David Roubaud

    (Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School, MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVM - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School - UM - Université de Montpellier)

Abstract

We contribute to the ongoing literature on the effects of policy uncertainty on economic variables by investigating the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets in China, India and the USA. Our findings suggest that contrary to China, an increase in policy uncertainty in the USA and India reduces significantly stock returns and augments market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Arouri & David Roubaud, 2016. "On the determinants of stock market dynamics in emerging countries: the role of economic policy uncertainty in China and India," Post-Print hal-02009136, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02009136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Yi‐Ting Peng & Tsangyao Chang & Omid Ranjbar, 2022. "Analyzing the degree of persistence of economic policy uncertainty using linear and non‐linear fourier quantile unit root tests," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(4), pages 453-471, July.
    3. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    4. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2017. "Oil price shocks and policy uncertainty: New evidence on the effects of US and non-US oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 536-546.
    6. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    7. Chuliá, Helena & Gupta, Rangan & Uribe, Jorge M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-191.
    8. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    9. Ito, Asei & Lim, Jaehwan & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Catching the political leader's signal: Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    12. Tanveer Bagh & Abdul Waheed & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mirza Muhammad Naseer, 2023. "Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Stock Price Index: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Wavelet Coherence Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    13. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Minas Panagiotidis & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Macroeconomic and Uncertainty Shocks’ Effects on Energy Prices: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-35, February.
    14. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Demirer, Riza & Raheem, Ibrahim D. & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "Does the U.S. economic policy uncertainty connect financial markets? Evidence from oil and commodity currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 375-388.
    15. Salim Hamza Ringim & Abdulkareem Alhassan & Hasan Güngör & Festus Victor Bekun, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: Empirical Evidence from Multivariate DCC-GARCH Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    16. Umar, Zaghum & Mokni, Khaled & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Connectedness between the COVID-19 related media coverage and Islamic equities: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    17. Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury & Hassan Ahmed, 2023. "The Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Indian Stock Market," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(1), pages 1-54, January.
    18. Sumit Kumar Maji & Arindam Laha & Debasish Sur, 2020. "Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 239-269, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets.; Policy uncertainty; stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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