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Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

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  • Rose, Andrew
  • Spiegel, Mark

Abstract

We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew & Spiegel, Mark, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7901
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    1. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross-section; Current account; Data; Early warning; Empirical; Gdp; Growth; Recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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