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Long memory in REIT volatility revisited: genuine or spurious, and self-similar?

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  • Jian Zhou

Abstract

This paper revisits the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) long-memory literature and addresses two important research questions: one, whether the observed long memory in REIT volatility is genuine or spurious (that is, caused by structural changes); and, two, a related one -- whether the long memory is self-similar. Regarding the first question, we find strong evidence for the coexistence of pure long memory and structural breaks in all developed countries under study when daily data are used. But for the emerging markets under study some show coexistence while others show only pure long memory. Such a finding is also shared by both developed and emerging markets when it comes to using lower frequency data (weekly and monthly). As for the second question, we find support for self-similarity when we compare the daily and weekly long-memory estimates for the developed markets, implying that long memory is an intrinsic feature of the data. However, the support is not strong enough to completely rule out the possibility of structural breaks. Moreover, the support is found reduced when we consider the emerging markets and the monthly estimates from the developed markets. This is possibly due to the small sample size in both cases. Overall our findings have important implications for volatility modeling and forecasting.

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  • Jian Zhou, 2011. "Long memory in REIT volatility revisited: genuine or spurious, and self-similar?," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 213-232, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jpropr:v:28:y:2011:i:3:p:213-232
    DOI: 10.1080/09599916.2011.577903
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Beine & Sebastien Laurent, 2000. "Structural Change and Long Memory in Volatility: New Evidence from Daily Exchange Rates," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0312, Econometric Society.
    2. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Simple (but Effective) Tests Of Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks," Working Paper 1101, Economics Department, Queen's University.
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    1. Alia Afzal & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2023. "Long Memory, Spurious Memory: Persistence in Range-Based Volatility of Exchange Rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 789-811, September.
    2. Bonato, Matteo & Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2021. "Do oil-price shocks predict the realized variance of U.S. REITs?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Ivelina Pavlova & Jang Hyung Cho & A.M. Parhizgari & William G. Hardin, 2014. "Long memory in REIT volatility and changes in the unconditional mean: a modified FIGARCH approach," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 315-332, December.
    4. Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Gabriel O. Oduyemi & Johnson A. Oliyide, 2021. "Price and volatility persistence of the US REITs market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Assaf, Ata, 2015. "Long memory and level shifts in REITs returns and volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
    6. Patrick Krieger & Carsten Lausberg & Kristin Wellner, 2018. "Einblicke in die Gründe für nicht-normalverteilte Immobilienrenditen: eine explorative Untersuchung deutscher Wohnimmobilienportfolios [Insights into the reasons for non-normal real estate returns:," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 4(1), pages 49-79, November.
    7. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility of international REITs: The role of realized skewness and realized kurtosis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 303-315, March.
    8. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Uncertainty due to Infectious Diseases and Forecastability of the Realized Variance of US REITs: A Note," Working Papers 202099, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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