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School Dropouts and Conditional Cash Transfers: Evidence from a Randomised Controlled Trial in Rural China's Junior High Schools

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  • Di Mo
  • Linxiu Zhang
  • Hongmei Yi
  • Renfu Luo
  • Scott Rozelle
  • Carl Brinton

Abstract

The overall goal of this study is to examine if there is a dropout problem in rural China and to explore the effectiveness of a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme on the rate of dropping out. To meet this goal, we conduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess the impact of the CCT using a sample of the poorest 300 junior high school students in a nationally-designated poor county in Northwest China. We find that the annual dropout rate in the study county was 7.8 per cent and even higher, 13.3 per cent, among the children of poor households. We demonstrate that a CCT program reduces dropout by 60 per cent. The programme is most effective among students with poor academic performance, and likely more effective among girls and younger students.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Mo & Linxiu Zhang & Hongmei Yi & Renfu Luo & Scott Rozelle & Carl Brinton, 2013. "School Dropouts and Conditional Cash Transfers: Evidence from a Randomised Controlled Trial in Rural China's Junior High Schools," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 190-207, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:49:y:2013:i:2:p:190-207
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2012.724166
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    1. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Haimovich & Emmanuel Vazquez & Melissa Adelman, 2021. "Scalable Early Warning Systems for School Dropout prevention: Evidence from a 4.000-School Randomized Controlled Trial," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0285, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    2. Hongyan Liu & Chengfang Liu & Fang Chang & Prashant Loyalka, 2016. "Implementation of Teacher Training in China and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(3), pages 86-104, May.
    3. Lu, Ming & Zhang, Xi, 2019. "Towards an intelligent country: China’s higher education expansion and rural children’s senior high school participation," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 1-1.
    4. Harry Edmund Moroz, 2020. "The Role of Social Protection in Building, Protecting, and Deploying Human Capital in the East Asia and Pacific Region," World Bank Publications - Reports 34783, The World Bank Group.
    5. Chengfang Liu & Ye Li & Shaoping Li & Renfu Luo & Linxiu Zhang & Scott Rozelle & Spencer Hagist & Jack Hou, 2020. "The returns to education in rural China: Some new estimates," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(1), pages 189-208, January.
    6. Martina Jakob & Benita Combet, 2020. "Educational aspirations and decision-making in a context of poverty. A test of rational choice models in El Salvador," University of Bern Social Sciences Working Papers 33, University of Bern, Department of Social Sciences, revised 01 Aug 2020.
    7. Bai, Chen & Chen, Xiaomeng & Han, Keqing, 2020. "Mobile phone addiction and school performance among Chinese adolescents from low-income families: A moderated mediation model," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Chu, Jessica Hsiaochieh & Loyalka, Prashant & Chu, James & Qu, Qinghe & Shi, Yaojiang & Li, Guirong, 2015. "The impact of teacher credentials on student achievement in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 14-24.
    9. Patel-Campillo, Anouk & Salas García, V.B., 2022. "Breaking the poverty cycle? Conditional cash transfers and higher education attainment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115021, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Patel-Campillo, Anouk & García, V.B. Salas, 2022. "Breaking the poverty cycle? Conditional cash transfers and higher education attainment," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Zhou, Yanran & Ren, Jingru & Zheng, Xiaodong, 2024. "Feeding for a brighter future: The long-term labor market consequences of school meals in rural China," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Sandra García & Juan Saavedra, 2017. "Educational Impacts and Cost-Effectiveness of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs in Developing Countries: A Meta-Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gupta, Shriyam & Liu, Chengfang & Li, Shaoping & Chang, Fang & Shi, Yaojiang, 2023. "Association between ability tracking and student’s academic and non-academic outcomes: Empirical evidence from junior high schools in rural China," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    14. Evans, David K. & Gale, Charles & Kosec, Katrina, 2023. "The educational impacts of cash transfers in Tanzania," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Cheng Yuan & Xiaoxiao Wang & Li Lin, 2023. "Why Do Financially Illiterate Students Perceive Lower Education Returns? Evidence From a Survey in Rural China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    16. Gao, Shen & Yang, Meredith & Wang, Xiaohong & Min, Wenbin & Rozelle, Scott, 2019. "Peer relations and dropout behavior: Evidence from junior high school students in northwest rural China," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-143.
    17. repec:lic:licosd:37916 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yi, Hongmei & Song, Yingquan & Liu, Chengfang & Huang, Xiaoting & Zhang, Linxiu & Bai, Yunli & Ren, Baoping & Shi, Yaojiang & Loyalka, Prashant & Chu, James & Rozelle, Scott, 2015. "Giving kids a head start: The impact and mechanisms of early commitment of financial aid on poor students in rural China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-15.
    19. Eric Bettinger & Nina Cunha & Guilherme Lichand & Ricardo Madeira, 2020. "Are the effects of informational interventions driven by salience?," ECON - Working Papers 350, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2021.
    20. Jakob, Martina & Combet, Benita, 2020. "Educational aspirations and decision-making in a context of poverty. A test of rational choice models in El Salvador," SocArXiv w9bkq_v1, Center for Open Science.
    21. Fan Li & Prashant Loyalka & Hongmei Yi, 2016. "Ability Tracking and Social Capital in China’s Rural Secondary School System," Working Papers id:10972, eSocialSciences.
    22. Jakob, Martina & Combet, Benita, 2020. "Educational aspirations and decision-making in a context of poverty. A test of rational choice models in El Salvador," SocArXiv w9bkq, Center for Open Science.
    23. Dong, Yongqing & Bai, Yunli & Wang, Weidong & Luo, Renfu & Liu, Chengfang & Zhang, Linxiu, 2020. "Does gender matter for the intergenerational transmission of education? Evidence from rural China," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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