IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/jbemgt/v14y2013isup1ps377-s394.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests

Author

Listed:
  • Evan Lau
  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah
  • Soon

Abstract

This article investigates the mean-reverting behavior of the external debt ratio based on a clustered of 19 Asian countries from 1981 to 2010. For this purpose, we use a government's intertemporal budget constraint (GIBC) model popularized by Hamilton and Flavin (1986). Our conclusions were drawn from panel data based tests, including the newly developed test that accounts for both cross-sectional dependency and structural breaks. Two major findings are noteworthy; first majority debt ratios in the Asian countries are affected by structural breaks. Second, we find unit root tests that do not accommodate breaks are less likely to detect mean reversion in the debt ratios. In all, our results indicate debt sustainability is a general characteristic of all the Asian countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Soon, 2013. "The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(sup1), pages 377-394, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:14:y:2013:i:sup1:p:s377-s394
    DOI: 10.3846/16111699.2012.720589
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.3846/16111699.2012.720589
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3846/16111699.2012.720589?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
    2. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    3. Aart Kraay & Vikram Nehru, 2006. "When Is External Debt Sustainable?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 341-365.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    6. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:482-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    10. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2002. "Series‐specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-546, December.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    12. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2010. "On the Stationarity of Current Account Deficits in the European Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 730-740, September.
    14. Cassimon, Denis & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Debt Sustainability for Low-Income Countries: A Review of Standard and Alternative Concepts," MPRA Paper 11077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    16. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    17. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    18. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles Wallace, 2006. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit Root Tests: a Reply," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 512-516, August.
    19. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    20. Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2010. "US external debt sustainability revisited: Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching unit root test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 98-106, March.
    21. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:64:y:2002:i:5:p:527-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 597-617, July.
    24. Mr. Kamau Thugge & Mr. Anthony R. Boote, 1997. "Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries and the HIPC Initiative," IMF Working Papers 1997/024, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 2000. "Debt and Deficit Ceilings, and Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: an Intertemporal Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 197-222, May.
    26. Johansson, Pernilla, 2010. "Debt Relief, Investment and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1204-1216, September.
    27. Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988. "The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
    28. Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "How Sustainable Are Oecd Current Account Balances In The Long Run?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(5), pages 626-643, September.
    29. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    30. Fincke, Bettina & Greiner, Alfred, 2011. "Do large industrialized economies pursue sustainable debt policies? A comparative study for Japan, Germany and the United States," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 202-213.
    31. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Martin Wagner, 2006. "The Performance of Panel Unit Root and Stationarity Tests: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 85-116.
    32. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2009. "Assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy: the perspective of Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(15), pages 1939-1949.
    33. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    34. Mr. Emanuele Baldacci & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2010. "Restoring Debt Sustainability After Crises: Implications for the Fiscal Mix," IMF Working Papers 2010/232, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles S. Wallace, 2001. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit‐Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 482-493, August.
    36. M. Aslam Chaudhary & Sabahat Anwar, 2001. "Debt Laffer Curve for South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 705-720.
    37. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    38. Muhanji, Stella & Ojah, Kalu, 2011. "External shocks and persistence of external debt in open vulnerable economies: The case of Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1615-1628, July.
    39. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Hwang, Young-Soon & McDonald, Judith A., 2009. "Are Asian countries' current accounts sustainable? Deficits, even when associated with high investment, are not costless," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 163-179.
    40. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    41. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mahmoud M. Nourayi & Julie W. Suh, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Competitiveness in the U.S. Airline Industry," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 83-99, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    3. Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Eastern European Countries - A Post-Crisis Assessment," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 175-188.
    4. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    5. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    6. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    7. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Are current account deficits really sustainable in the G-7 countries?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 190-201.
    8. Stefan Collignon, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Rules and the Sustainability of Public Debt in Europe," RECON Online Working Papers Series 28, RECON.
    9. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    10. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    11. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2011. "Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1455-1464, July.
    12. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    13. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Coulibaly, Issiaka, 2014. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 208-226.
    14. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3211-3219, August.
    15. Mark J. Holmes & Theodore Panagiotidis & Jesus Otero, 2008. "Are EU budgets stationary?," Discussion Paper Series 2008_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2008.
    16. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    17. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2015. "Multi-step analysis of public finances sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 199-209.
    18. Stefan Collignon, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Rules And The Sustainability Of Public Debt In Europe," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 539-567, May.
    19. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2015. "Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-156.
    20. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:jbemgt:v:14:y:2013:i:sup1:p:s377-s394. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/TBEM20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.