IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v41y2009i15p1939-1949.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy: the perspective of Asian countries

Author

Listed:
  • Evan Lau
  • Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah

Abstract

This article investigates fiscal policy sustainability in 10 Asian countries by adopting a battery of unit root tests. Univariate unit root tests reveal that the fiscal stance in these countries follows a nonstationary process while the opposite conclusion was drawn for the same dataset using the commonly employed panel unit root techniques. By utilizing the series-specific panel unit-root test recently developed by Breuer et al. [2002, SURADF (Seemingly Unrelated Regression Augmented Dickey-Fuller)] that allows testing for the presence of nonstationarity within individual cross sections of the panel, we found that only cross sections four out of 10 countries in the panel are stationary. This means that fiscal deficits in most Asian countries are in violation of their intertemporal budget constraint and that the deficits are too large.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2009. "Assessing the mean reversion behaviour of fiscal policy: the perspective of Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(15), pages 1939-1949.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:15:p:1939-1949
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840601131755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840601131755
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840601131755?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Nigel A Chalk & Mr. Richard Hemming, 2000. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 2000/081, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Fiscal sustainability in BRICS countries: Evidence from asymmetric unit root tests augmented with Fourier fucntion," MPRA Paper 85501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Phiri, Andrew, 2019. "Fiscal sustainability in BRICS countries: evidence from asymmetric unit root test augmented with Fourier function," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 15(2).
    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "How sustainable are fiscal budgets in the Kingdom of Swaziland?," MPRA Paper 85149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tuck Cheong Tang & Evan Lau, 2008. "An Empirical Investigation On The Sustainability Of Balancing Item Of Balance Of Payment Accounts For Oic Member Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 31/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Soon, 2013. "The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(sup1), pages 377-394, June.
    6. Pui Sun Tam, 2013. "Finite-sample distribution of the augmented Dickey--Fuller test with lag optimization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3495-3511, August.
    7. Hui, Hon Chung, 2013. "Fiscal sustainability in Malaysia: a re-examination," MPRA Paper 80018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.
    9. Maritta Paloviita & Pasi Ikonen, 2018. "Real-time uncertainty in budget planning: evidence from euro area countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 281-300, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2010. "Mean Reversion Of The Fiscal Conduct In 24 Developing Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 302-325, July.
    3. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    4. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    5. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    6. Ms. Annalisa Fedelino & Alina Kudina, 2003. "Fiscal Sustainability in African HIPC Countries: A Policy Dilemma?," IMF Working Papers 2003/187, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    8. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lankester-Campos, Valerie & Loaiza-Marín, Kerry & Monge-Badilla, Carlos, 2020. "Assessing public debt sustainability for Costa Rica using the fiscal reaction function," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    10. Alena Kimakova, 2006. "Does globalization enhance the role of fiscal policy in economic stabilization?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 8(11), pages 1-11.
    11. Daney, Valdivia & Marcelo, Montegro, 2011. "Boosting cycles and Stabilization effects of Fiscal Rules," MPRA Paper 32115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2024. "What broke the pearl of the Indian ocean? The causes of the Sri Lankan economic crisis and its policy implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    13. Robert Pollin & James Heintz & Heidi Garrett-Peltier & Jeannette Wicks-Lim, 2011. "19 Million Jobs For U.S. Workers: The Impact Of Channeling $1.4 Trillion In Excess Liquid Asset Holdings Into Productive Investments," Published Studies peri_19million, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    14. Al-Abri, Almukhtar & Genc, Ismail H. & Naufal, George S, 2018. "The Impact of Government Spending on GDP in a Remitting Country," IZA Discussion Papers 11676, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Chronis Panagiotis, 2009. "Modeling Distortionary Taxation," Working Papers 95, Bank of Greece.
    16. Agata Wierzbowska & Masahiko Shibamoto, 2015. "Cross-Country Evidence on Determinants of Fiscal Policy Effectiveness –The Role of Capital Flows and a Country's International Trade and Financial Position," Discussion Paper Series DP2015-08, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    17. Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    18. Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Juergen von Hagen, 2010. "The Sustainability of Public Finanaces and Fiscal Policy Coordination in the EMU," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 412, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    20. Sebastian Hauptmeier & Martin Heipertz & Ludger Schuknecht, 2007. "Expenditure Reform in Industrialised Countries: A Case-Study Approach," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 293-342, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:15:p:1939-1949. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.