IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v38y2011i10p2165-2181.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plans for detecting seasonal epidemics when faced with non-homogeneous negative binomial counts

Author

Listed:
  • R. S. Sparks
  • T. Keighley
  • D. Muscatello

Abstract

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plans for non-homogeneous negative binomial counts are developed for detecting the onset of seasonal disease outbreaks in public health surveillance. These plans are robust to changes in the in-control mean and over-dispersion parameter of the negative binomial distribution, and therefore are referred to as adaptive plans. They differ from the traditional approach of using standardized forecast errors based on the normality assumption. Plans are investigated in terms of early signal properties for seasonal epidemics. The paper demonstrates that the proposed EWMA plan has efficient early detection properties that can be useful to epidemiologists for communicable and other disease control and is compared with the CUSUM plan.

Suggested Citation

  • R. S. Sparks & T. Keighley & D. Muscatello, 2011. "Optimal exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plans for detecting seasonal epidemics when faced with non-homogeneous negative binomial counts," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 2165-2181.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:10:p:2165-2181
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2010.545184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02664763.2010.545184
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664763.2010.545184?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James O Lloyd-Smith, 2007. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Negative Binomial Dispersion Parameter for Highly Overdispersed Data, with Applications to Infectious Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(2), pages 1-8, February.
    2. Cordeiro, Gauss M. & Simas, Alexandre B., 2009. "The distribution of Pearson residuals in generalized linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(9), pages 3397-3411, July.
    3. Ross Sparks & Chris Carter & Petra Graham & David Muscatello & Tim Churches & Jill Kaldor & Robyn Turner & Wei Zheng & Louise Ryan, 2010. "Understanding sources of variation in syndromic surveillance for early warning of natural or intentional disease outbreaks," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(9), pages 613-631.
    4. Garnaut,Ross, 2008. "The Garnaut Climate Change Review," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521744447, November.
    5. Luis Fernando Chaves & Mercedes Pascual, 2007. "Comparing Models for Early Warning Systems of Neglected Tropical Diseases," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 1(1), pages 1-6, October.
    6. Lambert, Diane & Liu, Chuanhai, 2006. "Adaptive Thresholds: Monitoring Streams of Network Counts," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 78-88, March.
    7. C. P. Farrington & N. J. Andrews & A. D. Beale & M. A. Catchpole, 1996. "A Statistical Algorithm for the Early Detection of Outbreaks of Infectious Disease," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 159(3), pages 547-563, May.
    8. M. C. Thomson & F. J. Doblas-Reyes & S. J. Mason & R. Hagedorn & S. J. Connor & T. Phindela & A. P. Morse & T. N. Palmer, 2006. "Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles," Nature, Nature, vol. 439(7076), pages 576-579, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yunhan Huang & Quanyan Zhu, 2022. "Game-Theoretic Frameworks for Epidemic Spreading and Human Decision-Making: A Review," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 7-48, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ting-Wu Chuang & Luis Fernando Chaves & Po-Jiang Chen, 2017. "Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Kym Anderson & Signe Nelgen & Ernesto Valenzuela & Glyn Wittwer, 2009. "Economic contributions and characteristics of grapes and wine in AustraliaÂ’s wine regions," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2009-01, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    3. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    4. Kaidonis, Mary & Moerman, Lee & Rudkin, Kathy, 2009. "Paradigm, paradox, paralysis: An epistemic process," Accounting forum, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 285-289.
    5. Nigel Martin & John Rice, 2010. "Analysing emission intensive firms as regulatory stakeholders: a role for adaptable business strategy," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 64-75, January.
    6. Sheng, Yu & Xu, Xinpeng, 2019. "The productivity impact of climate change: Evidence from Australia's Millennium drought," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 182-191.
    7. Hongbo Duan & Gupeng Zhang & Shouyang Wang & Ying Fan, 2018. "Balancing China’s climate damage risk against emission control costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 387-403, March.
    8. Giorel Curran, 2011. "Modernising Climate Policy in Australia: Climate Narratives and the Undoing of a Prime Minister," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 29(6), pages 1004-1017, December.
    9. Raymond Markey & Joseph McIvor & Martin O’Brien & Chris F Wright, 2021. "Triggering business responses to climate policy in Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 46(2), pages 248-271, May.
    10. Nelson, Tim & Pascoe, Owen & Calais, Prabpreet & Mitchell, Lily & McNeill, Judith, 2019. "Efficient integration of climate and energy policy in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 178-193.
    11. Dr Barry Naughten, 2013. "Emissions Pricing, 'Complementary Policies' and 'Direct Action' in the Australian Electricity Supply Sector: 'Lock-in' and Investment," CCEP Working Papers 1304, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. William Paul Bell & John Foster, 2017. "Using solar PV feed-in tariff policy history to inform a sustainable flexible pricing regime to enhance the diffusion of energy storage and electric vehicles," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 127-145, April.
    13. Wood, Peter John & Jotzo, Frank, 2011. "Price floors for emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1746-1753, March.
    14. Cameron White, 2016. "The conditions of practical action: Neoliberalism and sustainability in the Australian road construction industry," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(8), pages 1501-1515, December.
    15. Margherita Grasso & Matteo Manera & Aline Chiabai & Anil Markandya, 2012. "The Health Effects of Climate Change: A Survey of Recent Quantitative Research," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, April.
    16. Sangha, Kamaljit K & Evans, Jay & Edwards, Andrew & Russell-Smith, Jeremy & Fisher, Rohan & Yates, Cameron & Costanza, Robert, 2021. "Assessing the value of ecosystem services delivered by prescribed fire management in Australian tropical savannas," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    17. Adrian Amelung, 2016. "Das "Paris-Agreement": Durchbruch der Top-Down-Klimaschutzverhandlungen im Kreise der Vereinten Nationen," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2016, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    18. Freebairn, John, 2012. "Tax mix change to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(1), pages 1-15, March.
    19. Christin Schröder & Luis Alberto Peña Diaz & Anna Maria Rohde & Brar Piening & Seven Johannes Sam Aghdassi & Georg Pilarski & Norbert Thoma & Petra Gastmeier & Rasmus Leistner & Michael Behnke, 2020. "Lean back and wait for the alarm? Testing an automated alarm system for nosocomial outbreaks to provide support for infection control professionals," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Peggy Schrobback & David Adamson & John Quiggin, 2009. "Turning Water into Carbon: Carbon sequestration vs. water flow in the Murray-Darling Basin," Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WP2M09, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:38:y:2011:i:10:p:2165-2181. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.