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ARFIMAX and ARFIMAX-TARCH realized volatility modeling

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  • Stavros Degiannakis

Abstract

ARFIMAX models are applied in estimating the intra-day realized volatility of the CAC40 and DAX30 indices. Volatility clustering and asymmetry characterize the logarithmic realized volatility of both the indices. The ARFIMAX model with time-varying conditional heteroskedasticity is the best performing specification and, at least in the case of DAX30, provides statistically superior next trading day's realized volatility forecasts.

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  • Stavros Degiannakis, 2008. "ARFIMAX and ARFIMAX-TARCH realized volatility modeling," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(10), pages 1169-1180.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:35:y:2008:i:10:p:1169-1180
    DOI: 10.1080/02664760802271017
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    1. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility of agricultural commodities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 74-96.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2015. "Forecasting implied volatility indices worldwide: A new approach," MPRA Paper 72084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tian, Fengping & Yang, Ke & Chen, Langnan, 2017. "Realized volatility forecasting of agricultural commodity futures using the HAR model with time-varying sparsity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 132-152.
    4. Kazeem Isah & Ibrahim D. Raheem, 2018. "The Hidden Predictive Power of Cryptocurrencies: Evidence from US Stock Market," Working Papers 056, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    5. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    6. Farid, Saqib & Kayani, Ghulam Mujtaba & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Intraday volatility transmission among precious metals, energy and stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Anton Koshelev, 2021. "FX Market Volatility," Papers 2104.14190, arXiv.org.
    8. Stavros Degiannakis & Alexandra Livada, 2016. "Evaluation of realized volatility predictions from models with leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed forecast errors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 871-892, April.
    9. Tissaoui, Kais, 2019. "Forecasting implied volatility risk indexes: International evidence using Hammerstein-ARX approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 232-249.
    10. Stavros Degiannakis & Apostolos Kiohos, 2014. "Multivariate modelling of 10-day-ahead VaR and dynamic correlation for worldwide real estate and stock indices," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 41(2), pages 216-232, March.
    11. Lin, Tiantian & Liu, Dehong & Zhang, Lili & Lung, Peter, 2019. "The information content of realized volatility of sector indices in China’s stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 625-640.
    12. Stavros Degiannakis & Apostolos Kiohos, 2014. "Multivariate modelling of 10-day-ahead VaR and dynamic correlation for worldwide real estate and stock indices," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 216 - 232, March.
    13. Ke Yang & Langnan Chen & Fengping Tian, 2015. "Realized Volatility Forecast of Stock Index Under Structural Breaks," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 57-82, January.
    14. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2014. "Realized volatility models and alternative Value-at-Risk prediction strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-116.
    15. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Subhan Ullah, 2022. "Financial modelling, risk management of energy instruments and the role of cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 47-75, June.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2018. "Forecasting global stock market implied volatility indices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 111-129.
    17. Yang, Ke & Tian, Fengping & Chen, Langnan & Li, Steven, 2017. "Realized volatility forecast of agricultural futures using the HAR models with bagging and combination approaches," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 276-291.
    18. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    19. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "News implied volatility and long-term foreign exchange market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 126-142.
    20. Ke Yang & Langnan Chen, 2014. "Realized Volatility Forecast: Structural Breaks, Long Memory, Asymmetry, and Day-of-the-Week Effect," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 345-392, September.
    21. Dimitrios P. Louzis & Spyros Xanthopoulos-Sisinis & Apostolos P. Refenes, 2012. "Stock index realized volatility forecasting in the presence of heterogeneous leverage effects and long range dependence in the volatility of realized volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3533-3550, September.
    22. Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M. & Huang, Dengshi & Xu, Weiju, 2017. "Forecasting the realized volatility of the oil futures market: A regime switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 136-145.
    23. Chen, Yixiang & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Good, bad cojumps and volatility forecasting: New evidence from crude oil and the U.S. stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 52-62.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARFIMAX; realized volatility; TARCH; volatility forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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