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Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio

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  • Pierre Giot
  • Mikael Petitjean

Abstract

This paper takes a new look at the market-timing ability of the bond-equity yield ratio (BEYR). We compare the short-term profitability of a naive strategy based on the extreme values of the BEYR to the short-term profitability of a sophisticated strategy relying on regime switches. In contrast to previous studies, we do not document any major international evidence that these dynamic strategies deliver significantly higher risk-adjusted returns than the buy-and-hold portfolios. Moreover, the profitability of these active strategies is not improved when the equity yield, instead of the BEYR, is used as a criterion to time the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:15:y:2009:i:4:p:365-384
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470802466097
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    2. Lleo, Sébastien & Ziemba, William T., 2015. "Some historical perspectives on the Bond-Stock Earnings Yield Model for crash prediction around the world," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 399-425.
    3. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    4. Qin, Duo & He, Xinhua, 2012. "Modelling the impact of aggregate financial shocks external to the Chinese economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Nebojsa Dimic & Vitaly Orlov & Janne Äijö, 2019. "Bond–Equity Yield Ratio Market Timing in Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1), pages 52-79, April.
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    7. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE.

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