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Equity Prices, Dividends and Gilt Yields in the UK: Cointegration, Error Correction and 'Confidence.'

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  • Mills, Terence C

Abstract

This paper finds that equity prices, dividends and gilt yields are cointegrated, having a unique cointegrating vector. From the associated error correction formulation, it is found that gilt yields are exogenous and that equity prices respond quickly, and negatively to a gilt shock. Restriction can be placed on the cointegrating vector that enables the equilibrium relationship to be one in which gilt and dividend yields are in constant proportion to each other. This ratio is equivalent to the "confidence factor" used by investment analysts in the 1950s and provides control limits for monitoring the movement of equity prices. Copyright 1991 by Scottish Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Mills, Terence C, 1991. "Equity Prices, Dividends and Gilt Yields in the UK: Cointegration, Error Correction and 'Confidence.'," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 38(3), pages 242-255, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:scotjp:v:38:y:1991:i:3:p:242-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2007. "An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3‐4), pages 613-641, April.
    2. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    3. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    4. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4113 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Michael Bowe, 2007. "Discussion of An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3‐4), pages 642-649, April.
    7. Migiakis, Petros M. & Bekiris, Fivos V., 2009. "Regime switches between dividend and bond yields," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 198-204, September.
    8. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    9. Nektarios Aslanidis & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices:," Working Papers 0302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    10. Brooks, Chris & Persand, Gita, 2001. "The trading profitability of forecasts of the gilt-equity yield ratio," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 11-29.

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