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An international analysis of earnings, stock prices and Bond yields

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  • DURRE, Alain
  • GIOT, Pierre

Abstract

This paper assesses the possible contemporaneous relationship between stock index prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries and over a time period that spans several decades. In a cointegration framework, our analysis looks at three hypotheses. First, is there a long-term contemporaneous relationship between earnings, stock prices and government bond yields? Second, does a deviation from this possible long-run equilibrium impact stock prices such that the equilibrium is restored? Third, do government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship or does the latter only involve stock prices and earnings? We also study the short-term impact of changes in long-term government bond yields on stock prices and discuss our short-term and long-term results in light of the recent developments regarding the so-called Fed model.
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Suggested Citation

  • DURRE, Alain & GIOT, Pierre, 2007. "An international analysis of earnings, stock prices and Bond yields," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1984, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvrp:1984
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2007.02010.x
    Note: In : Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 34 (3-4), 613-641, 2007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jokivuolle, Esa & Keppo, Jussi, 2014. "Bankers' compensation: Sprint swimming in short bonus pools?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2014, Bank of Finland.
    3. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    4. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
    6. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    7. Jokivuolle, Esa & Keppo, Jussi & Yuan, Xuchuan, 2015. "Bonus caps, deferrals and bankers' risk-taking," Research Discussion Papers 5/2015, Bank of Finland.
    8. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2005. "European Stock Market Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    9. Ekrem Meric & Melik Kamisli & Fatih Temizel, 2017. "Interactions among Stock Price and Financial Ratios: The Case of Turkish Banking Sector," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(6), pages 107-115, November.
    10. Samuel Aubert & Pierre Giot, 2007. "An international test of the Fed model," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(2), pages 86-100, July.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    13. Jokivuolle, Esa & Keppo, Jussi, 2014. "Bankers' compensation: : Sprint swimming in short bonus pools?," Research Discussion Papers 2/2014, Bank of Finland.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Michael Bowe, 2007. "Discussion of An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3‐4), pages 642-649, April.
    16. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503041096 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Migiakis, Petros M. & Bekiris, Fivos V., 2009. "Regime switches between dividend and bond yields," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 198-204, September.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503041096 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Clostermann, Jörg & Seitz, Franz, 2005. "Are bond markets really overpriced: The case of the US," Arbeitsberichte – Working Papers 11, Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt (THI).
    20. Shakizada Niyazbekova & Igor Grekov & Tatiana Blokhina, 2016. "The Influence Of Macroeconomic Factors To The Dynamics Of Stock Exchange In The Republic Of Kazakhstan," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1263-1273.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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