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The price-dividend relationship in inflationary and deflationary regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob B Madsen

    (University of Copenhagen)

  • Costas Milas

    (Keele University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper argues that the linear price- dividend relationship as predicted in the Gordon (1962) model breaks down in regimes of high inflation and deflation. Using data for the US and the UK over the period from 1871 to 2002, nonlinear estimates support the prediction of the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B Madsen & Costas Milas, 2005. "The price-dividend relationship in inflationary and deflationary regimes," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2005/09, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2005/09
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    File URL: http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/ec/wpapers/kerp0509.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J, 1992. "Dividends and Losses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1837-1863, December.
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    5. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-763, November.
    6. Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2006. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 791-811, July.
    7. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    8. Mick Silver & Christos Ioannidis, 2001. "Intercountry Differences in the Relationship between Relative Price Variability and Average Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 355-374, April.
    9. William C. Hunter & Lucy F. Ackert, 1999. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1372-1376, December.
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    11. Lucy Ackert & William Hunter, 2001. "An Empirical Examination of the Price-Dividend Relation with Dividend Management," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 115-129, April.
    12. Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H & Womack, Kent L, 1995. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 573-608, June.
    13. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311.
    14. Grossman, Richard S., 2002. "New Indices Of British Equity Prices, 1870–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 121-146, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2007. "Putting the dividend-price ratio under the microscope," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 186-195, September.
    3. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    4. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regime-switching; nonlinearity; price-dividend relationship; inflation and deflation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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