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Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk: Evidence From Advanced Economies During the Financial Crisis

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  • Mr. Emre Alper
  • Lorenzo Forni
  • Mr. Marc Gerard

Abstract

We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market arbitrage relationship between the cash (RAS) and the derivatives (CDS) markets, with price discovery taking place in the latter. Likewise, panel regressions aimed at uncovering the fundamental drivers of the two indicators show that the CDS market, although less liquid, has provided a better signal for sovereign credit risk during the period of the recent financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Emre Alper & Lorenzo Forni & Mr. Marc Gerard, 2012. "Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk: Evidence From Advanced Economies During the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2012/024, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/024
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    Cited by:

    1. Belyakov, Igor (Беляков, Игорь), 2017. "On the Determinants of Sovereign Eurobond Spreads in Russia [О Факторах, Определяющих Спрэды Суверенных Еврооблигаций России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 200-225, February.
    2. Ms. Elif C Arbatli Saxegaard & Mr. Emre Alper & Jiri Jonas & Miss Anke Weber & Mr. Marc Gerard & Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Giovanni Callegari & Ms. Anna Shabunina & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Carlos Caceres, 2012. "A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/011, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Iven Silva Valpassos, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and sovereign risk," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1343-1365.
    4. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:cii:cepiei:2015-q1-141-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Daniel Kapp, 2012. "The optimal size of the European Stability Mechanism: A cost-benefit analysis," DNB Working Papers 349, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    7. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert, 2018. "Is Thailand’s credit default swap market linked to bond and stock markets? Evidence from the term structure of credit spreads," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 324-341.
    8. Maria Czech, 2022. "The Impact of Covid-19 Dynamics on SCDS Spreads in Selected CEE Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 254-271.
    9. Laura Jaramillo & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 2012. "Walking Hand in Hand: Fiscal Policy and Growth in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 2012/137, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    11. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta & Pilbeam, Keith, 2018. "The housing market and the credit default swap premium in the UK banking sector: A VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Andrea Schaechter & C. Emre Alper & Elif Arbatli & Carlos Caceres & Giovanni Callegari & Marc Gerard & Jiri Jonas & Tidiane Kinda & Anna Shabunina & Anke Weber, 2014. "A toolkit to assess fiscal vulnerabilities and risks in advanced economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 650-660, February.
    13. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Pedro del Río, 2012. "Boom-bust cycles, imbalances and discipline in Europe," Working Papers 1220, Banco de España.
    14. Kocsis, Zalan & Monostori, Zoltan, 2016. "The role of country-specific fundamentals in sovereign CDS spreads: Eastern European experiences," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 140-168.
    15. Benbouzid, Nadia & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Determinants of bank credit default swap spreads: The role of the housing sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 243-259.
    16. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Policy risks, technological risks and stock returns: New evidence from the US stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 359-365.

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