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Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Tsangyao Chang
  • Zahra (Mila) Elmi
  • Omid Ranjbar

Abstract

The Prebisch–Singer hypothesis in economics asserts that over time the relative price of primary goods relative to manufactured goods should experience a downward trend. To test the hypothesis, we must first establish the unit root properties of the relative price term and then regress the stationary series on a trend term. We use the quantile unit root test which allows for both smooth unknown numbers and the form of breaks in the trend function through a Fourier function to show that the relative price of 23 out of 24 primary goods is stationary. However, the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis is supported only in half of the primary commodities.

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Zahra (Mila) Elmi & Omid Ranjbar, 2018. "Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 441-454, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:4:p:441-454
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1332751
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    2. Jean-François Carpantier, 2021. "Commodity Prices in Empirical Research," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Gilles Dufrénot & Takashi Matsuki (ed.), Recent Econometric Techniques for Macroeconomic and Financial Data, pages 199-227, Springer.
    3. Cai, Yifei & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Fourier quantile unit root test for the integrational properties of clean energy consumption in emerging economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 324-334.
    4. Peng, Yi-Ting & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Xiang, Feiyun, 2024. "Has the COVID-19 pandemic shock transmitted to the u.s. stock market: Evidence using bootstrap (A)symmetric fourier granger causality test in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Pan, Lei & Matsuki, Takashi, 2021. "House price convergence in the very long run: new evidence from Fourier quantile unit root test," MPRA Paper 110816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Lee, Yi-Lung & Ranjbar, Omid & Jahangard, Fateme & Chang, Tsangyao, 2020. "Analyzing slowdown and meltdowns in the African countries: New evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 187-198.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).

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