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Has the COVID-19 pandemic shock transmitted to the u.s. stock market: Evidence using bootstrap (A)symmetric fourier granger causality test in quantiles

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  • Peng, Yi-Ting
  • Chang, Tsangyao
  • Ranjbar, Omid
  • Xiang, Feiyun

Abstract

This study investigates whether the COVID-19 shocks transmitted to the U.S. stock market were symmetric or asymmetric using bootstrap quantile asymmetric Granger causality tests with or without the Fourier functions. The results indicate that while low quantiles of stock returns do not respond to COVID-19 shocks, the latter is a powerful predictor of high quantiles of stock returns. Besides, only positive COVID-19 shocks are potent predictors of high quantiles of stock market return. In contrast, adverse shocks adequately predict low quantiles of stock return. These findings have important policy implications for investors and policymakers who implement strategies for market stabilization.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Yi-Ting & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid & Xiang, Feiyun, 2024. "Has the COVID-19 pandemic shock transmitted to the u.s. stock market: Evidence using bootstrap (A)symmetric fourier granger causality test in quantiles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:72:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824000810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102156
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; COVID-19; Granger non-causality; Asymmetric causality; Quantile regression method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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