IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v49y2017i58p5841-5848.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncovering the interrelationship between the U.S. stock and housing markets: a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao Chang
  • Su-Ling Tsai
  • Kai-yin Allison Haga

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the time-varying interrelationship between the housing market and the stock market in the U.S. during the period of 1890–2013, by employing a rolling window subsample with a bootstrap Granger causality test. The rolling window allows for structural changes in the economy over time. Whereas previous studies have not identified a causal relationship between the U.S. housing price index and the SP500 stock price index, this new analysis is the first to identify certain periods wherein either the wealth effect or the investment effect can be observed.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao Chang & Su-Ling Tsai & Kai-yin Allison Haga, 2017. "Uncovering the interrelationship between the U.S. stock and housing markets: a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(58), pages 5841-5848, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:58:p:5841-5848
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1346365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2017.1346365
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2017.1346365?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    2. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    4. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    5. Lin, Tsoyu Calvin & Lin, Zong-Han, 2011. "Are stock and real estate markets integrated? An empirical study of six Asian economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 571-585, November.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    9. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    10. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    12. Achim Zeileis & Friedrich Leisch & Christian Kleiber & Kurt Hornik, 2005. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 99-121, January.
    13. Zhou Xia & Carroll Christopher D., 2012. "Dynamics of Wealth and Consumption: New and Improved Measures for U.S. States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-44, March.
    14. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    2. Mutaju Isaack Marobhe & Jonathan Mukiza Peter Kansheba, 2023. "High frequency volatility spillover between oil and non-energy commodities during crisis and tranquil periods," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Chen, Chien-Fu & Chiang, Shu-hen, 2022. "Portfolio diversification possibilities between the stock and housing markets in G7 countries: Evidence from the time-varying Granger causality," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Mensi, Walid & Nekhili, Ramzi & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Suleman, Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility connectedness among U.S. stock sectors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-476 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    3. Feng-Li Lin & Mei-Chih Wang & Hsien-Hung Kung, 2020. "Housing and Stock Market Nexus in the US," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 114-130.
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Chang, Hsu-Ling, 2019. "Does money supply drive housing prices in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 85-94.
    5. Xiao-lin Li & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Tsangyao Chang, 2016. "The Causal Relationship Between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns in China and India: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 674-689, March.
    6. repec:agr:journl:v:3(604):y:2015:i:3(604):p:75-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ming-Hsien YANG & Chih-She WU, 2015. "Revisit Export and GDP Nexus in China and Taiwan: A Rolling Window Granger Causality Test," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 75-92, Autumn.
    8. Chiwei Su & Yingying Xu & Hsu Ling Chang & Oana-Ramona Lobont & Zhixin Liu, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Rolling Granger Causality Test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-582, July.
    9. Yifei Cai, 2018. "Predictive Power of us Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shock on Stock Returns in Australia and New Zealand," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 470-488, December.
    10. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & John P. Dunne & Rangan Gupta & Rene� van Eyden, 2014. "Military expenditure, economic growth and structural instability: a case study of South Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 619-633, December.
    11. Yingying Xu & Zhi-Xin Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Adelina Dumitrescu Peculea & Chi-Wei Su, 2017. "Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1098-1113, March.
    12. David Su & Xin Li & Oana-Ramona Lobonþ & Yanping Zhao, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and housing returns in Germany: Evidence from a bootstrap rolling window," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(1), pages 43-61.
    13. Jing Sun & Jinhui Xu & Xin Cheng & Jichao Miao & Hairong Mu, 2023. "Dynamic causality between PPI and CPI in China: A rolling window bootstrap approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1279-1289, April.
    14. Ghosh, Taniya & Bhadury, Soumya, 2018. "Money's causal role in exchange rate: Do divisia monetary aggregates explain more?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 402-417.
    15. Chi-Wei Su & Jiao-Jiao Fan & Hsu-Ling Chang & Xiao-Lin Li, 2016. "Is there Causal Relationship between Money Supply Growth and Inflation in China? Evidence from Quantity Theory of Money," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 702-719, August.
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mehmet Balcilar & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2023. "Is causality between globalization and energy consumption bidirectional or unidirectional in top and bottom globalized economies?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1939-1964, April.
    17. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2019. "Time-varied causality between US partisan conflict shock and crude oil return," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Riadh El Abed & Noura Harboub, 2022. "Time varying causality between Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: A rolling-window bootstrap approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 1767-1781.
    19. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ferrer, Román & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad & Haouas, Ilham, 2017. "Is the tourism-economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top ten tourist destinations," MPRA Paper 82713, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2017.
    20. Junaid Masih & Dongsheng Liu & Javed Pervaiz, 2018. "The Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Chinese Trade Balance: Evidence from a Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 35-47, February.
    21. Kai-Hua Wang & Jia-Min Kan & Cui-Feng Jiang & Chi-Wei Su, 2022. "Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    22. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & El Montasser, Ghassen & Gupta, Rangan & Manjez, Nangamso C., 2016. "Can debt ceiling and government shutdown predict us real stock returns? A bootstrap rolling window approach. - Gli effetti sui rendimenti azionari reali negli USA del tetto del debito pubblico e del b," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(1), pages 11-32.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:58:p:5841-5848. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.