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Dynamic Causalities between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Rolling Granger Causality Test

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  • Chiwei Su
  • Yingying Xu
  • Hsu Ling Chang
  • Oana-Ramona Lobont
  • Zhixin Liu

Abstract

This study examines the causal nexus between defense expenditure and economic growth in China using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and rolling-window estimation. The full-sample result indicates a positive bidirectional causality between economic growth and defense expenditure, suggesting that more defense spending increases economic growth, and vice versa. By adopting a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisit the dynamic causal relationships, this article identifies that the causality changes over time. We find significant positive short-run causality running from economic growth to defense expenditure in most of the time investigated, thus implying that economic growth stimulates defense expenditure. However, large-scale disarmaments break such positive linkage. Conversely, both positive and negative effects of defense expenditure on economic growth are demonstrated, showing that more defense spending has ambiguous effect on economy. Consequently, economic growth mainly drives defense expenditure rather than the other way around. The impact of defense expenditure in China on national economy is affected by multiplier effect and crowding-out effect as well as institutional factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiwei Su & Yingying Xu & Hsu Ling Chang & Oana-Ramona Lobont & Zhixin Liu, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities between Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth in China: Evidence from Rolling Granger Causality Test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-582, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:31:y:2020:i:5:p:565-582
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2018.1505583
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mantalos Panagiotis, 2000. "A Graphical Investigation of the Size and Power of the Granger-Causality Tests in Integrated-Cointegrated VAR Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, April.
    2. J Paul Dunne & Mehmet Uye, 2009. "Military Spending and Development," Working Papers 0902, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
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    Cited by:

    1. Efayena Obukohwo Oba & Olele Enoh Hilda, 2024. "Analysis of the Relationship Between Military Expenditure and Investment in the Economic Community of West African States: A Heterogeneous Panel Data Approach," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 34(4), pages 58-77.
    2. Mona Rabea Abd Elfattah Elsayed, 2024. "Guns versus Growth: Assessing the Validity of the Benoit Hypothesis on the Egyptian Economy," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(5), pages 71-80, September.
    3. Saba Charles Shaaba, 2022. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 51-100, February.
    4. Isiaka Akande Raifu & Alarudeen Aminu, 2023. "The effect of military spending on economic growth in MENA: evidence from method of moments quantile regression," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Ray-Ming Chen, 2022. "Does the growth of military hard power back up the growth of monetary soft power via data-driven probabilistic optimal relations?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-6, December.
    6. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    7. Tsitouras Antonis & Tsounis Nicholas, 2024. "Military Outlays and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Disaggregated Analysis for a Developed Economy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(3), pages 341-391.

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