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Democratization and civil war

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  • Laura E. Armey
  • Robert M. McNab

Abstract

This article examines the impact of civil war on democratization, particularly focusing on whether civil war provides an opportunity for institutional reform. We investigate the impact of war termination in general, along with prolonged violence, rebel victory and international intervention on democratization. Using an unbalanced panel data set of 96 countries covering a 34-year period, our analysis suggests that civil war lowers democratization in the succeeding period. Our findings also suggest that United Nations intervention increases democratization, as do wars ending in stalemates. However, wars ending in rebel victories seem to reduce democratization. These findings appear robust to conditioning, different instrument sets, modelling techniques and the measurement of democracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura E. Armey & Robert M. McNab, 2015. "Democratization and civil war," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(18), pages 1863-1882, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:18:p:1863-1882
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.1000529
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, September.
    2. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    3. Collier, Paul, 2008. "The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195374636.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paola Vesco & Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück & Debarati Guha-Sapir & Jonathan Hall & Stefan Döring & Anneli Eriksson & Hanne Fjelde & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Maxine R. Leis & Hannes Mueller & Christopher, 2024. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: a review of the literature," HiCN Working Papers 414, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Marino, Maria & Donni, Paolo Li & Bavetta, Sebastiano & Cellini, Marco, 2020. "The democratization process: An empirical appraisal of the role of political protest," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Arnab Biswas & Colin O’Reilly & James T. Bang & Aniruddha Mitra, 2016. "Civil war and economic growth: the case for a closer look at forms of mobilization," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(15), pages 1057-1061, October.
    4. Colin O'Reilly, 2021. "Violent conflict and institutional change," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 257-317, April.

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