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Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach

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  • Roberto Cellini
  • Tiziana Cuccia

Abstract

This article takes a time-series analysis approach to evaluate the directions of causality between tourism flows, on the one side, and museum and monument attendance, on the other. We consider Italy as a case study, and analyse monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2010. All the considered series are seasonally integrated, and co-integration links emerge. We focus on the error-correction mechanism among co-integrated time series to detect the directional link(s) of causality. Clear-cut results emerge: bi-directional causality exists in the long-run dynamics, but it is the long-run dynamics of visits to museums and monuments that mainly adjust to tourism variables (arrivals, overnights, average stays). In the short run, there are some causal effects going from the cultural sites’ attendance to tourism dynamics. The nonstationary nature of time series, their co-integration relationships and the direction of causal links suggest specific implications for tourism and cultural policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:45:y:2013:i:24:p:3473-3482
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2012.716150
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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