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An Econometric Estimation of the Demand for Tourism: The Case of Russia

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  • Bernardina Algieri

    (Department of Economics and Statistics, Calabria University, Italy and Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung (ZEF Centre for Development Studies), University of Bonn, Germany)

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of tourism revenues in Russia and gauges their impact on tourism demand over the period 1993:12 to 2002:10. The demand for tourism and the choice of tourist destinations are subject to significant swings for many reasons, including variations in income, exchange rates and prices, as well as unpredicted events such as relevant political changes. Therefore, reliable estimates of the elasticities of tourism demand become important for the formulation of efficient tourism policies. In this context a cointegration analysis of the demand for tourism in Russia within a VAR framework was carried out. The results suggest a robust and significant long-run cointegration relationship between Russian tourism receipts, world GDP, real exchange rates and air transport prices. In particular, the estimated income, cost of living and airfares elasticities are statistically significant and have the expected signs, and their values are in accordance with the empirical literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernardina Algieri, 2006. "An Econometric Estimation of the Demand for Tourism: The Case of Russia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(1), pages 5-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:12:y:2006:i:1:p:5-20
    DOI: 10.5367/000000006776387114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Fateh Habibi, 2015. "Iranian Tourism Demand for Malaysia: A Bound Test Approach," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 19(1), pages 63-80, Winter.
    3. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2013. "Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(24), pages 3473-3482, August.
    4. E. M. Ekanayake & Mihalis Halkides & John R. Ledgerwood, 2012. "Inbound International Tourism To The United States: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Management and Marketing Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(3), pages 15-27.
    5. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2010. "Tourism in South Africa. Time series persistence and the nature of shocks. Are they transitory or permament?," NCID Working Papers 06/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    6. Habibi, Fateh & Abdul Rahim, Khalid & Chin, Lee, 2008. "United Kingdom and United States Tourism Demand for Malaysia:A Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 13590, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Iza Lejárraga & Peter Walkenhorst, 2013. "Economic policy, tourism trade and productive diversification," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 135-136, pages 1-12.
    8. Chi, Junwook, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty and exchange rates on international air travel demand: The case from Hong Kong," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Recep Ulucak & Ali Gökhan Yücel & Salih Çağrı İlkay, 2020. "Dynamics of tourism demand in Turkey: Panel data analysis using gravity model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1394-1414, December.
    10. Seetaram, Neelu, 2010. "Computing airfare elasticities or opening Pandora's box," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 27-36.
    11. Fateh Habibi & Hossein Abbasinejad, 2011. "Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of European Tourism Demand in Malaysia," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 27-41, spring.
    12. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Stavros Degiannakis & Bruno Eeckels & George Filis, 2016. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2571-2585, June.
    13. Anappattath Muhammed Salim & Thomas Shiby M., 2023. "Demand for Kerala’s International Tourism by the Top Three Source Markets: A Comparative Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 208-226, October.
    14. Coshall, John T. & Charlesworth, Richard, 2011. "A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 759-769.
    15. Claveria, Oscar & Torra, Salvador, 2014. "Forecasting tourism demand to Catalonia: Neural networks vs. time series models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 220-228.
    16. Sadyrbek Kozhokulov & Xi Chen & Degang Yang & Gulnura Issanova & Kanat Samarkhanov & Selvina Aliyeva, 2019. "Assessment of Tourism Impact on the Socio-Economic Spheres of the Issyk-Kul Region (Kyrgyzstan)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-18, July.
    17. Marina Sheresheva & Lilia Valitova & Maria Tsenzharik & Matvey Oborin, 2020. "Industrial Life-Cycle and the Development of the Russian Tourism Industry," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-10, June.
    18. World Bank, 2009. "Macedonia - Moving to Faster and More Inclusive Growth A Country Economic Memorandum : Main Report and Annex," World Bank Publications - Reports 3067, The World Bank Group.
    19. Lamia Jamel, 2020. "The Relation between Tourism and Economic Growth: A Case of Saudi Arabia as an Emerging Tourism Destination," Virtual Economics, The London Academy of Science and Business, vol. 3(4), pages 29-47, October.
    20. Andrea Saayman & Melville Saayman, 2008. "Determinants of Inbound Tourism to South Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 81-96, March.

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