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Impact of exchange rate volatility on import flows: the case of Malaysia and the United States

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  • Yii Siing Wong
  • Chong Mun Ho
  • Brian Dollery

Abstract

This article investigates empirically both linear and nonlinear relationships between exchange rate volatility and import flows for the United States and Malaysia. Previous empirical work has neglected nonlinear relationships, focusing instead on linear causal relationships between exchange rate volatility and import flows, which may have generated misleading conclusions. Using annual American and Malaysian data for the periods 1975/2009 and 1980/2009, this article differs from earlier studies by adding a Brock--Dechert--Scheinkman (BDS) test to investigate the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) residual and then employing nonlinear causality tests to investigate the existence of nonlinear causal relationships. Two major findings emerge. First, the BDS test shows the residual of the linear model is not i.i.d. Second, the nonlinear causality test shows both Malaysia and the US have nonlinear causal relationships between exchange rate volatility and import flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Yii Siing Wong & Chong Mun Ho & Brian Dollery, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on import flows: the case of Malaysia and the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2027-2034, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:24:p:2027-2034
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.697120
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    1. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua & Abdul Fatah Che Hamat, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and ASEAN-4’s trade flows: is there a third country effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 91-117, January.
    2. Linh T.D. Huynh & Hien Thanh Hoang, 2019. "Effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral import performance of Vietnam: A dynamic Generalised method of Moments panel approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 88-110, January.
    3. Yao Amber Li & Chen Carol Zhao, 2016. "Price Adjustment to Exchange Rates and Forward-looking Exporters: Evidence from USA–China Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 1023-1049, November.
    4. Fan, Haichao & Li, Yao Amber & Zhao, Chen Carol, 2018. "Margins of imports, forward-looking firms, and exchange rate movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 185-202.
    5. Yao Amber Li & Carol Zhao Chen, 2015. "Forward-Looking Exporters and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Micro-Level Investigation," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2015-28, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Jul 2015.
    6. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.

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