IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/japwor/v14y2002i4p445-470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange-rate volatility, trade and "fixing for life" in Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Rahmatsyah, Teuku
  • Rajaguru, Gulasekaran
  • Siregar, Reza Y.

Abstract

At the outset of the 1997 financial crisis in East Asia, the quest to find a more suitable exchange rate policy has become an urgent policy challenge facing the East Asian economies. One of key policies agreed under Thailand’s August 1997 Letter of Intent (LOI) with the IMF was to adopt a more flexible exchange rate policy. The implementation took place in the early months of the crisis, but most of these Southeast Asian economies, including Thailand, have re-adopted their pre-1997 crisis rigid exchange rate policy in early 1999 (McKinnon, 2001). To grasp this “fixing for your life” phenomenon (Calvo and Reinhart 2000a and 2000b), we test the impact of real exchange rate volatilities of Thailand’s baht against the Japanese yen and the US dollar on the performance of the country’s bilateral exports and imports with Japan and the U.S. from 1970 to first quarter of 1997.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Rahmatsyah, Teuku & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran & Siregar, Reza Y., 2002. "Exchange-rate volatility, trade and "fixing for life" in Thailand," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 445-470, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:14:y:2002:i:4:p:445-470
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922-1425(02)00029-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shang-Jin Wei & Jungshik Kim, 1997. "The Big Players in the Foreign Exchange Market: Do They Trade on Information or Noise?," NBER Working Papers 6256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
    3. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
    4. Daly, Kevin, 1998. "Does exchange rate volatility impede the volume of Japan's bilateral trade?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 333-348, July.
    5. Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999. "Currency hedging and goods trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
    6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    7. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    8. McKenzie, Michael D. & Brooks, Robert D., 1997. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-87, April.
    9. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar & Iman Sugema, 2003. "Why was there a precrisis capital inflow boom in Southeast Asia?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-283.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 2002. "A small sample correction for tests of hypotheses on the cointegrating vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 195-221, December.
    11. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2002. "After the Crisis, the East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High-Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Augustine H H Tan (ed.), Monetary And Financial Management In Asia In The 21st Century, chapter 2, pages 21-77, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. International Monetary Fund, 1984. "Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade," IMF Occasional Papers 1984/005, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 295-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Lastrapes, William D. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 341-362.
    16. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Michael Mussa & Mr. Alexander K. Swoboda & Mr. Esteban Jadresic & Mr. Paul R Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/011, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mckenzie, Michael D., 1998. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on Australian trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 21-38, January.
    19. Hendry, David F, 1974. "Stochastic Specification in an Aggregate Demand Model of the United Kingdom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 559-578, May.
    20. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    21. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
    22. Caporale, Tony & Doroodian, Khosrow, 1994. "Exchange rate variability and the flow of international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-54, September.
    23. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    24. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
    25. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-495, August.
    26. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    27. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    28. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
    29. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    30. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1994. "Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_94-1.
    32. Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 2001. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 87-94, July.
    33. Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May.
    34. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
    35. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Won-Cheol Yun, 2012. "Yuan revaluation and its implications," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 149-154, February.
    2. Aihua Wang & Faruk Balli & Xiumin Li, 2015. "Possible Best Currency Basket Selection from the Perspective of Real Effective Exchange Rate," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 635-650, October.
    3. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    4. Yii Siing Wong & Chong Mun Ho & Brian Dollery, 2012. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on import flows: the case of Malaysia and the United States," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2027-2034, December.
    5. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2006. "Revisiting the interest rate-exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 208-224, February.
    6. Christoph Himmels & Tatiana Kirsanova, 2009. "The Interest Rate — Exchange Rate Nexus: Exchange Rate Regimes and Policy Equilibria," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0902, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    7. masron, Tajul arrifin & Mohd naseem niaz, Ahmad, 2008. "Export, Economic Integration and Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Himmels, Christoph & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2018. "Discretionary policy in a small open economy: Exchange rate regimes and multiple equilibria," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-64.
    9. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2014. "The spillover effects of unremunerated reserve requirements: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 338-351.
    10. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    11. Fizza Malik, 2016. "Modeling Dynamics of Exchange Rates Volatility: A Case of Pakistan from 1980-2010," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(3), pages 144-161, September.
    12. Reza Siregar, 2011. "The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp81.
    13. Prasertnukul, Weera & Kim, Donghun & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2010. "Exchange rates, price levels, and inflation targeting: Evidence from Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 173-182, August.
    14. Siwei Goo & Reza Siregar, 2009. "Economic Shocks And Exchange Rate As A Shock Absorber In Indonesia And Thailand," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp72.
    15. Hall, Stephen & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George & Ulan, Michael, 2010. "Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: Do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1514-1521, November.
    16. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2009. "The effect of exchange rate variability on US shareholder wealth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1963-1972, November.
    17. Siregar, Reza & Pontines, Victor & Mohd Hussain, Nurulhuda, 2010. "The US Subprime Crises and Extreme Market Pressures in Asia," MPRA Paper 22995, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Siregar, Reza & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2004. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia's trade performance in the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 218-240, June.
    2. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Innocent U Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh & Benedict I Uzoechina & Gabriel O Ebenyi & Ekechi Chukwuka, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Nigerian Scenario," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(1), pages 11-28.
    4. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    5. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "A synthesis of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on international trade via Meta-Regression analysis," MPRA Paper 65737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Daly, Kevin, 1998. "Does exchange rate volatility impede the volume of Japan's bilateral trade?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 333-348, July.
    7. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Eithne Murphy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does exchange rate volatility matter?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 193-208.
    8. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    9. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    10. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange‐rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 51-102, February.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and US commodity trade with the rest of the world," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 511-532.
    14. David Kihangire, 2005. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability On Exports: Evidence From Uganda (1988 – 2001)," International Trade 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.
    16. Fountas, Stilianos & Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 1999. "Has the European Monetary System led to more exports? Evidence from four European Union countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 357-363, March.
    17. Pål Boug & Andreas Fagereng, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export performance: a cointegrated VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 851-864.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2022. "The U.S.‐Canadian trade and exchange rate uncertainty: Asymmetric evidence from commodity trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 841-866, March.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Masoomeh Hajilee, 2013. "Impact of exchange-rate variability on commodity trade between U.S. and Germany," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 287-324, May.
    20. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty interact with International Trade? A Meta-Analysis Revisited," MPRA Paper 56201, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:14:y:2002:i:4:p:445-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.