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Trading rules and stock returns: some further short run evidence from the Hang Seng 1997-2008

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  • J. Andrew Coutts

Abstract

This article re-examines the work of Coutts and Cheung (2000), who investigated the applicability and validity of trading rules in the Hang Seng Index (HSI) on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKSE) for the period January 1985 through June 1997, and for two subsamples of equal length, partitioned from the whole sample. They concluded that the moving average oscillator and the trading range break-out rules, appeared to be present, to varying extents, for all three data samples, although the Trading Range Break-out rule was by far the strongest. However, their striking conclusion was that these rules were statistically significant over much shorter data periods than used in previous studies. They also suggested that because there is a tendency for potentially 'profitable' trading rules, once documented to cease existing, and consequently further research concerning the HSI was required in years hence. It is in this spirit that we replicate the work of Coutts and Cheung, and conclude that these once potentially short-term 'profitable' trading rules, are now defunct, which leads us to suggest the validity of 'profitable' trading rules, released to the 'public information set' via academic journals.

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  • J. Andrew Coutts, 2010. "Trading rules and stock returns: some further short run evidence from the Hang Seng 1997-2008," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(21), pages 1667-1672.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:21:p:1667-1672
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.524613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hudson, Robert & Dempsey, Michael & Keasey, Kevin, 1996. "A note on the weak form efficiency of capital markets: The application of simple technical trading rules to UK stock prices - 1935 to 1994," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1121-1132, July.
    2. Mills, Terence C, 1997. "Technical Analysis and the London Stock Exchange: Testing Trading Rules Using the FT30," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 319-331, October.
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    5. J. Andrew Coutts & Kwong-C. Cheung, 2000. "Trading rules and stock returns: some preliminary short run evidence from the Hang Seng 1985-1997," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 579-586.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.

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