IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v15y2005i16p1107-1123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A re-examination of the holiday effect in stock returns: the case of Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Paul McGuinness

Abstract

A strong pre-holiday effect is revealed in this study of Hong Kong stock returns. Importantly, the effect does not appear to be modulated by day-of-the-week effects, which themselves are highly volatile and inconsistent across various sub-periods. As documented in earlier studies for the 1970s and 1980s, a Chinese Lunar New Year (CLNY) effect has been highly significant in explaining Hong Kong's overall pre-holiday return effect. Re-examination of the issue here indicates that the effect has continued throughout the last 15 years. More tellingly, after controlling for Hong Kong holidays, a pre-US holiday return effect is absent from Hong Kong returns for the 1990-2005 sub-period despite its significance between 1975 and 1990. Besides confirming earlier evidence of an inherited US holiday effect in Hong Kong returns during the 1970s and 1980s, it is instructive to note that the waning US pre-holiday effect, as documented in various studies since, can be viewed through the prism of Hong Kong returns. While the US pre-holiday effect appears to have been purged, Hong Kong's own holiday effect, other than that relating to the CLNY, has generally weakened. Finally, despite the persistence of a strong CLNY pre-holiday daily return effect, a 'seasonal' run-up in stock returns in the weeks prior to the CLNY is less apparent than hitherto.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul McGuinness, 2005. "A re-examination of the holiday effect in stock returns: the case of Hong Kong," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1107-1123.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:16:p:1107-1123
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100500359575
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100500359575
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09603100500359575?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cadsby, Charles Bram & Ratner, Mitchell, 1992. "Turn-of-month and pre-holiday effects on stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 497-509, June.
    2. Robert Hudson & Kevin Keasey & Kevin Littler, 2002. "Why investors should be cautious of the academic approach to testing for stock market anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 681-686.
    3. Glenn N. Pettengill, 1989. "Holiday Closings And Security Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 12(1), pages 57-67, March.
    4. Brian Lucey & Angel Pardo, 2005. "Why investors should not be cautious about the academic approach to testing for stock market anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 165-171.
    5. Kim, Chan-Wung & Park, Jinwoo, 1994. "Holiday Effects and Stock Returns: Further Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 145-157, March.
    6. Y. Angela Liu & Ming-Shiun Pan, 1997. "Mean and Volatility Spillover Effects in the U.S. and Pacific–Basin Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 47-62, March.
    7. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    8. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.
    9. Paul Mcguinness, 1997. "Inter-day return behaviour for stocks quoted 'back-to-back' in Hong Kong and London," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 459-464.
    10. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    11. Susmel, Raul & Engle, Robert F., 1994. "Hourly volatility spillovers between international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 3-25, February.
    12. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul McGuinness, 2006. "'Turn-of the-month' return effects for small cap Hong Kong stocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(14), pages 891-898.
    2. Harald Kinateder & Kimberly Weber & Niklas F. Wagner, 2019. "Revisiting Calendar Anomalies In Brics Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(2), pages 213-236, July.
    3. Meher Shiva Tadepalli & Ravi Kumar Jain, 2018. "Persistence of calendar anomalies: insights and perspectives from literature," American Journal of Business, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(1/2), pages 18-60, May.
    4. Paul McGuinness & Richard Harris, 2011. "Comparison of the 'turn-of-the-month' and lunar new year return effects in three Chinese markets: Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 917-929.
    5. Keith Lam & Frank Li, 2008. "The risk premiums of the four-factor asset pricing model in the Hong Kong stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1667-1680.
    6. Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete F. S. Vieira, 2013. "Another look at the holiday effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(20), pages 1623-1633, October.
    7. Andrew C. Worthington, 2007. "National Exuberance: A Note On The Melbourne Cup Effect In Australian Stock Returns," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 26(2), pages 170-179, June.
    8. Chen, Tsung-Cheng & Chien, Chin-Chen, 2011. "Size effect in January and cultural influences in an emerging stock market: The perspective of behavioral finance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 208-229, April.
    9. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    10. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y. & Cohen, Gil, 2020. "Everybody likes shopping, including the US capital market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    11. Qadan, Mahmoud & Aharon, David Y., 2019. "How much happiness can we find in the U.S. fear Index?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 246-258.
    12. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2018. "Determinants of holiday effects in mainland Chinese and Hong-Kong markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 45-67.
    13. Andrew Worthington, 2010. "The decline of calendar seasonality in the Australian stock exchange, 1958–2005," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 421-433, July.
    14. George Marrett & Andrew Worthington, 2009. "An empirical note on the holiday effect in the Australian stock market, 1996-2006," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1769-1772.
    15. Yuan, Tian & Gupta, Rakesh, 2014. "Chinese Lunar New Year effect in Asian stock markets, 1999–2012," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 529-537.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:rfb:journl:v:09:y:2017:i:2:p:007-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paulo M. Gama & Elisabete F. S. Vieira, 2013. "Another look at the holiday effect," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(20), pages 1623-1633, October.
    3. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Holiday Effect on Large Stock Price Changes," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 633-660, November.
    4. Yuan, Tian & Gupta, Rakesh, 2014. "Chinese Lunar New Year effect in Asian stock markets, 1999–2012," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 529-537.
    5. Brian Lucey, 2005. "Are local or international influences responsible for the pre-holiday behaviour of Irish equities?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 381-389.
    6. Tian Yuan & Rakesh Gupta & Robert J. Bianchi, 2015. "The Pre-Holiday Effect in China: Abnormal Returns or Compensation for Risk?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-28.
    7. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2017. ""I'll Think about it Tomorrow": Price Drifts Following Large Pre-Holiday Stock Price Moves," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 9(2), pages 043-062, December.
    8. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "The Extended Holiday Effect on US capital market," MPRA Paper 100463, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2020.
    9. Lahav, Eyal & Shavit, Tal & Benzion, Uri, 2016. "Can't wait to celebrate: Holiday euphoria, impulsive behavior and time preference," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 128-134.
    10. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2018. "Determinants of holiday effects in mainland Chinese and Hong-Kong markets," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 45-67.
    11. Paul McGuinness & Richard Harris, 2011. "Comparison of the 'turn-of-the-month' and lunar new year return effects in three Chinese markets: Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 917-929.
    12. Andrew Coutts & Christos Kaplanidis & Jennifer Roberts, 2000. "Security price anomalies in an emerging market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 561-571.
    13. Stephen Keef & Melvin Roush, 2005. "Day-of-the-week effects in the pre-holiday returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 107-119.
    14. Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
    15. Andrew Worthington, 2010. "The decline of calendar seasonality in the Australian stock exchange, 1958–2005," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 421-433, July.
    16. Autore, Don M. & Jiang, Danling, 2019. "The preholiday corporate announcement effect," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 61-82.
    17. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2018. "Holiday effect on stock price reactions to analyst recommendation revisions," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(7), pages 507-521, December.
    18. Chong, Ryan & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin & Littler, Kevin, 2005. "Pre-holiday effects: International evidence on the decline and reversal of a stock market anomaly," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1226-1236, December.
    19. Cemal Berk Oğuzsoy & Sibel Güven, 2004. "Holy Days Effect on Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 3(1), pages 63-75, January.
    20. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    21. Ilias Tsiakas, 2010. "The Economic Gains Of Trading Stocks Around Holidays," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-26, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:16:p:1107-1123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.